FootballGuy

2015 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. Probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations and update after each game. Read more: How this works | Complete NFL history | NBA predictions

UPDATED 10:45 pm EST | Feb 7, 2016

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Week 1 Games

Thurs
Sept. 10
Sun
Sept. 13
Mon
Sept. 14
Away team
PIT
CAR
CLE
GB
IND
KC
MIA
SEA
DET
NO
BAL
CIN
TEN
NYG
PHI
MIN
Pre-game win probabilities
Pre-game Elo point spread
28%
66%
-4.5
38%
66%
-4.5
47%
46%
57%
-2
69%
-5.5
43%
33%
38%
62%
-3.5
36%
27%
52%
-0.5
34%
72%
-6.5
34%
62%
-3.5
34%
52%
-0.5
54%
-1
43%
31%
57%
-2
66%
-5
62%
-3.5
38%
64%
-4
73%
-7
47%
66%
-4.5
Home team
NE
JAX
NYJ
CHI
BUF
HOU
WSH
STL
SD
ARI
DEN
OAK
TB
DAL
ATL
SF
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DayAway
Pre-game probabilities
Pre-game Elo spread
Home
Thurs
Sept. 10
PIT
28%
 
72%
-6.5
NE
 
Sun
Sept. 13
CAR
66%
-4.5
34%
 
JAX
 
CLE
38%
 
62%
-3.5
NYJ
 
GB
66%
-4.5
34%
 
CHI
 
IND
47%
 
52%
-0.5
BUF
 
KC
46%
 
54%
-1
HOU
 
MIA
57%
-2
43%
 
WSH
 
SEA
69%
-5.5
31%
 
STL
 
DET
43%
 
57%
-2
SD
 
NO
33%
 
66%
-5
ARI
 
BAL
38%
 
62%
-3.5
DEN
 
CIN
62%
-3.5
38%
 
OAK
 
TEN
36%
 
64%
-4
TB
 
NYG
27%
 
73%
-7
DAL
 
Mon
Sept. 14
PHI
52%
-0.5
47%
 
ATL
 
MIN
34%
 
66%
-4.5
SF
 

Team-By-Team Forecast

Forecast from
AverageAvg. Simulated SeasonPlayoff Odds
Sim. ResultsPlayoff Odds
Elo Rating
Elo
1-Week ChangeTeamDivision
Wins
W
Losses
L
Point Diff.
Make Playoffs
Make Play- offs
Win Division
Win Div.
First Round Bye
Win Super Bowl
Win Super Bowl
1678
SeattleNFC West11.14.9+109.678%60%42%15%
1664
New EnglandAFC East11.34.7+118.580%62%44%14%
1601
Green BayNFC North9.76.2+61.362%49%25%7%
1595
DenverAFC West9.66.4+55.959%44%23%6%
1590
DallasNFC East9.86.2+62.663%47%26%6%
1581
IndianapolisAFC South10.25.8+78.271%60%29%6%
1577
BaltimoreAFC North9.36.6+47.955%39%19%5%
1563
PittsburghAFC North8.57.5+17.743%28%13%4%
1545
PhiladelphiaNFC East9.07.0+35.149%32%16%3%
1541
ArizonaNFC West8.27.8+6.136%17%10%3%
1540
CincinnatiAFC North8.37.7+9.940%26%11%3%
1540
Kansas CityAFC West8.47.6+15.641%26%12%3%
1538
DetroitNFC North8.57.5+16.643%28%13%3%
1536
CarolinaNFC South9.26.8+42.355%43%18%3%
1534
BuffaloAFC East8.87.2+28.444%20%12%3%
1529
San FranciscoNFC West8.08.0+0.434%15%9%3%
1523
San DiegoAFC West8.47.5+16.041%25%11%2%
1505
HoustonAFC South8.67.4+20.244%31%12%2%
1486
New OrleansNFC South8.27.8+8.339%27%10%2%
1484
MiamiAFC East7.58.4-16.228%11%6%1%
1480
N.Y. GiantsNFC East7.68.4-15.129%17%7%1%
1479
MinnesotaNFC North7.18.9-30.525%15%5%1%
1477
St. LouisNFC West7.09.0-34.821%8%4%1%
1462
AtlantaNFC South7.78.2-9.032%22%8%1%
1440
N.Y. JetsAFC East6.89.2-42.417%6%3%<1%
1422
ClevelandAFC North5.910.1-73.512%7%2%<1%
1419
ChicagoNFC North6.19.9-68.114%8%2%<1%
1389
OaklandAFC West5.410.6-91.89%5%1%<1%
1377
Tampa BayNFC South5.910.0-72.412%8%2%<1%
1371
WashingtonNFC East5.310.7-95.78%4%1%<1%
1357
JacksonvilleAFC South5.110.8-101.48%4%<1%<1%
1339
TennesseeAFC South5.210.8-99.68%5%<1%<1%
Illustration by Dan Matutina. Additional contributions from Aaron Bycoffe and Ritchie King.

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