Who will win the presidency?

Who’d Who would win the presidency today?

Chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

71.4%

Donald Trump

28.6%

FiveThirtyEight
ALAKAZARCACOFLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMIMNMSMOMTNENVNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWVWIWYVTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points

Electoral votes

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

302.2

Donald Trump

Trump

235.0

Evan McMullin

McMullin

0.8

Gary Johnson

Johnson

0.0

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

48.5%

Donald Trump

Trump

44.9%

Gary Johnson

Johnson

5.0%

Other

Other

1.6%

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

Show all states

# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton's chances

Trump's chances

One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

Key

One electoral vote

# How much each state matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.

Tipping-point chance

Florida
17.6%
Pennsylvania
12.3%
Michigan
11.7%
North Carolina
11.2%
Virginia
6.0%
Colorado
6.0%
Ohio
5.2%
Wisconsin
4.8%
Minnesota
3.8%
Nevada
3.7%

Voter power index

New Mexico
4.8
Nevada
4.5
New Hampshire
4.3
Michigan
3.2
North Carolina
3.2
Colorado
2.9
Pennsylvania
2.9
Florida
2.5
Wisconsin
2.1
Virginia
2.0
Show all states

# What to expect from the Electoral College

In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.

Swipe for state forecasts →

# Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.

Key

Average

test

80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes1.0%
Electoral College 269-269 tie0.5%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt8.3%
Clinton wins popular vote81.4%
Trump wins popular vote18.6%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College10.5%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College0.5%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote0.3%
McMullin wins at least one electoral vote13.5%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote28.7%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote2.3%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin6.1%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin0.3%
Map exactly the same as in 20120.2%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 201271.6%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 201285.0%

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Florida’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

55.1%

Donald Trump

44.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Pennsylvania’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

77.0%

Donald Trump

23.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Michigan’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

78.9%

Donald Trump

21.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning North Carolina’s
15 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

55.5%

Donald Trump

44.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Virginia’s
13 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

85.5%

Donald Trump

14.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

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# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Colorado’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

77.5%

Donald Trump

22.4%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Ohio’s
18 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

35.4%

Donald Trump

64.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Wisconsin’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

83.5%

Donald Trump

16.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Minnesota’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

85.0%

Donald Trump

15.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Nevada’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

58.3%

Donald Trump

41.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Arizona’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

33.4%

Donald Trump

66.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning New Mexico’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

82.6%

Donald Trump

17.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning New Hampshire’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

69.8%

Donald Trump

30.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Georgia’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

20.9%

Donald Trump

79.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Iowa’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

30.2%

Donald Trump

69.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Maine’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

82.6%

Donald Trump

17.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2

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# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning New Jersey’s
14 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

96.9%

Donald Trump

3.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Oregon’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

93.7%

Donald Trump

6.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Texas’s
38 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

6.0%

Donald Trump

94.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Alaska’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

23.5%

Donald Trump

76.4%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Rhode Island’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

93.2%

Donald Trump

6.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Illinois’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.3%

Donald Trump

1.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning South Carolina’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

10.3%

Donald Trump

89.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Connecticut’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

97.3%

Donald Trump

2.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Delaware’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

91.5%

Donald Trump

8.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning South Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

6.1%

Donald Trump

93.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Utah’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

3.3%

Donald Trump

83.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Kansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.7%

Donald Trump

97.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning New York’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.8%

Donald Trump

0.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Montana’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

4.1%

Donald Trump

95.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Washington’s
12 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.4%

Donald Trump

1.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Tennessee’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.7%

Donald Trump

97.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Vermont’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.1%

Donald Trump

1.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Nebraska’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.3%

Donald Trump

97.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3

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# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Hawaii’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.9%

Donald Trump

1.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning California’s
55 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Mississippi’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.2%

Donald Trump

97.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Missouri’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

3.9%

Donald Trump

96.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Indiana’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.5%

Donald Trump

97.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Louisiana’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.5%

Donald Trump

99.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Massachusetts’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning West Virginia’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.3%

Donald Trump

99.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Wyoming’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.1%

Donald Trump

98.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Idaho’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.9%

Donald Trump

99.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning North Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.3%

Donald Trump

97.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Arkansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.4%

Donald Trump

99.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Maryland’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Kentucky’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.4%

Donald Trump

99.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Alabama’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Donald Trump

>99.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning District of Columbia’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Chance of winning Oklahoma’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Donald Trump

>99.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.

Our latest coverage

From polls to an adjusted average

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Download CSV of polls.

We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 4,208 state and national polls.

Key

= New

A = ALL ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 9:00 a.m. EST
Clinton 71.6%Trump 28.4%
DATES
POLLSTER
GRADESAMPLE
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
McMullin
LEADERADJUSTED LEADER
NationalNov. 2-6 Ipsos
A-
2,195 LV
42%
39%
6%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 5:12 a.m.
Clinton 71.2%Trump 28.7%
NationalNov. 1-7 USC Dornsife/LA Times2,972 LV
44%
47%
Trump +3
Clinton +2
NationalNov. 4-7 IBD/TIPP
A-
1,107 LV
41%
43%
7%
Trump +2
Clinton +1
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:42 a.m.
Clinton 71.9%Trump 28.0%
WisconsinNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,246 LV
44%
42%
7%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
VirginiaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,183 LV
49%
41%
7%
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
New YorkNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,208 LV
57%
32%
5%
Clinton +25
Clinton +24
New HampshireNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
696 LV
47%
38%
10%
Clinton +9
Clinton +8
New JerseyNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,377 LV
52%
37%
4%
Clinton +15
Clinton +14
OhioNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,860 LV
42%
45%
7%
Trump +3
Trump +4
FloridaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
4,092 LV
47%
45%
4%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
North CarolinaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
3,126 LV
48%
41%
7%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6
UtahNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,479 LV
31%
34%
7%
25%
Trump +3
Trump +4
South DakotaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
459 LV
32%
53%
11%
Trump +21
Trump +22
MichiganNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
3,145 LV
44%
42%
8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
IowaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,781 LV
38%
47%
9%
Trump +9
Trump +10
GeorgiaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,419 LV
45%
45%
7%
Tie
Trump +1
MissouriNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,368 LV
40%
48%
8%
Trump +8
Trump +9
OregonNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,595 LV
50%
35%
7%
Clinton +15
Clinton +14
CaliforniaNov. 4-6 Insights West401 LV
58%
35%
3%
Clinton +23
Clinton +23
CaliforniaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,712 LV
56%
31%
6%
Clinton +25
Clinton +24
AlabamaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,131 LV
36%
55%
6%
Trump +19
Trump +20
TennesseeNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,433 LV
41%
49%
5%
Trump +8
Trump +9
PennsylvaniaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,845 LV
46%
43%
6%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
ConnecticutNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,387 LV
52%
36%
7%
Clinton +16
Clinton +15
South CarolinaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,698 LV
43%
47%
6%
Trump +4
Trump +5
ArizonaNov. 4-6 Insights West392 LV
45%
47%
5%
Trump +2
Trump +2
ArizonaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,609 LV
45%
42%
7%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
NationalNov. 4-7 Insights West940 LV
49%
45%
4%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4
KentuckyNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,315 LV
35%
54%
6%
Trump +19
Trump +20
MinnesotaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,292 LV
46%
39%
10%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6
KansasNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,311 LV
36%
49%
9%
Trump +13
Trump +14
MarylandNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,216 LV
59%
28%
6%
Clinton +31
Clinton +30
ColoradoNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
2,777 LV
43%
40%
10%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
WashingtonNov. 4-6 Insights West402 LV
51%
36%
4%
Clinton +15
Clinton +15
WashingtonNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,451 LV
51%
33%
8%
Clinton +18
Clinton +17
MontanaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
449 LV
30%
52%
11%
Trump +22
Trump +23
NevadaNov. 4-6 Insights West373 LV
42%
42%
4%
Tie
Tie
NevadaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,207 LV
45%
43%
9%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
AlaskaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
409 LV
31%
48%
12%
Trump +17
Trump +18
IllinoisNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,823 LV
52%
35%
6%
Clinton +17
Clinton +16
IdahoNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
612 LV
29%
47%
6%
Trump +18
Trump +19
West VirginiaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
472 LV
29%
56%
7%
Trump +27
Trump +28
TexasNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
3,009 LV
43%
46%
6%
Trump +3
Trump +4
IndianaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,700 LV
35%
52%
10%
Trump +17
Trump +18
MaineNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
779 LV
46%
38%
10%
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
MassachusettsNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,378 LV
56%
30%
6%
Clinton +26
Clinton +25
New MexicoNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
749 LV
40%
38%
16%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
NebraskaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
988 LV
35%
52%
7%
Trump +17
Trump +18
LouisianaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
982 LV
38%
52%
4%
Trump +14
Trump +15
ArkansasNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
930 LV
32%
56%
6%
Trump +24
Trump +25
OklahomaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
1,271 LV
32%
57%
10%
Trump +25
Trump +26
MississippiNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
719 LV
42%
50%
4%
Trump +8
Trump +9
DelawareNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
367 LV
50%
39%
6%
Clinton +11
Clinton +10
District of ColumbiaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
310 LV
85%
7%
2%
Clinton +78
Clinton +77
VermontNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
454 LV
61%
25%
6%
Clinton +36
Clinton +35
HawaiiNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
426 LV
52%
28%
9%
Clinton +24
Clinton +23
WyomingNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
213 LV
21%
60%
9%
Trump +39
Trump +40
North DakotaNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
313 LV
29%
57%
9%
Trump +28
Trump +29
Rhode IslandNov. 1-7 SurveyMonkey
C-
415 LV
48%
36%
6%
Clinton +12
Clinton +11
Monday, Nov. 7, at 11:12 p.m.
Clinton 70.9%Trump 29.1%
MichiganNov. 6 Mitchell Research & Communications
D
1,011 LV
47%
41%
7%
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Monday, Nov. 7, at 10:11 p.m.
Clinton 71.4%Trump 28.5%
WisconsinNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,184 RV
47%
44%
3%
Clinton +3
Clinton +4
New YorkNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,681 RV
55%
36%
2%
Clinton +19
Clinton +20
OhioNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,781 RV
42%
48%
4%
Trump +6
Trump +5
GeorgiaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
2,002 RV
44%
48%
3%
Trump +4
Trump +3
OregonNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,963 RV
44%
40%
6%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
PennsylvaniaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,220 RV
46%
40%
7%
Clinton +6
Clinton +7
South CarolinaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,751 RV
43%
48%
3%
Trump +5
Trump +4
ArizonaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,453 RV
43%
45%
3%
Trump +2
Trump +1
ColoradoNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,378 RV
44%
43%
5%
Clinton +1
Clinton +2
AlaskaNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
617 RV
41%
44%
3%
Trump +3
Trump +2
Monday, Nov. 7, at 9:51 p.m.
Clinton 70.6%Trump 29.4%
WisconsinNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
914 LV
43%
31%
4%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12
VirginiaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
765 LV
39%
32%
7%
Clinton +8
Clinton +8
New YorkNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,308 LV
40%
33%
4%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6
New HampshireNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
109 LV
46%
31%
7%
Clinton +15
Clinton +15
New JerseyNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,012 LV
39%
33%
3%
Clinton +7
Clinton +7
OhioNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,070 LV
35%
38%
5%
Trump +3
Trump +3
FloridaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,350 LV
37%
41%
5%
Trump +5
Trump +5
North CarolinaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
794 LV
35%
41%
5%
Trump +6
Trump +6
UtahNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
286 LV
21%
35%
10%
Trump +14
Trump +14
South DakotaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
129 LV
35%
36%
7%
Trump +1
Trump +1
MichiganNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
821 LV
35%
34%
6%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1
IowaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
442 LV
36%
34%
4%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
GeorgiaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
614 LV
38%
41%
5%
Trump +4
Trump +4
MissouriNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
717 LV
37%
35%
8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
OregonNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
502 LV
45%
26%
6%
Clinton +19
Clinton +19
CaliforniaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,616 LV
48%
26%
6%
Clinton +21
Clinton +21
AlabamaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
485 LV
20%
61%
4%
Trump +40
Trump +41
TennesseeNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
494 LV
34%
44%
4%
Trump +10
Trump +10
PennsylvaniaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,177 LV
38%
37%
5%
Tie
Tie
ConnecticutNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
416 LV
39%
29%
6%
Clinton +9
Clinton +9
South CarolinaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
440 LV
32%
46%
3%
Trump +14
Trump +14
ArizonaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
696 LV
41%
36%
6%
Clinton +5
Clinton +5
NationalNov. 3-6 Gravis Marketing
B-
16,639 RV
47%
43%
3%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
NationalNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
26,574 LV
38%
36%
5%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
KentuckyNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
472 LV
32%
44%
4%
Trump +12
Trump +12
MinnesotaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
695 LV
35%
31%
8%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4
KansasNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
355 LV
41%
31%
7%
Clinton +10
Clinton +10
MarylandNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
498 LV
45%
31%
6%
Clinton +14
Clinton +13
ColoradoNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
666 LV
47%
30%
6%
Clinton +17
Clinton +17
WashingtonNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
682 LV
43%
30%
6%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12
MontanaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
193 LV
35%
35%
5%
Tie
Tie
NevadaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
259 LV
36%
38%
7%
Trump +2
Trump +2
AlaskaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
97 LV
23%
47%
9%
Trump +24
Trump +24
IllinoisNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,256 LV
38%
32%
5%
Clinton +7
Clinton +7
IdahoNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
196 LV
30%
35%
6%
Trump +4
Trump +4
West VirginiaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
137 LV
25%
52%
3%
Trump +26
Trump +26
TexasNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
1,155 LV
32%
42%
5%
Trump +10
Trump +10
IndianaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
774 LV
34%
36%
7%
Trump +3
Trump +3
MaineNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
108 LV
52%
21%
8%
Clinton +31
Clinton +31
MassachusettsNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
562 LV
48%
26%
5%
Clinton +22
Clinton +22
New MexicoNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
261 LV
43%
30%
9%
Clinton +13
Clinton +13
NebraskaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
266 LV
30%
41%
5%
Trump +11
Trump +11
LouisianaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
320 LV
22%
54%
4%
Trump +32
Trump +32
ArkansasNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
207 LV
31%
47%
7%
Trump +16
Trump +16
OklahomaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
248 LV
27%
43%
9%
Trump +17
Trump +17
MississippiNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
291 LV
25%
52%
3%
Trump +27
Trump +27
DelawareNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
149 LV
42%
30%
7%
Clinton +12
Clinton +11
District of ColumbiaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
86 LV
54%
11%
6%
Clinton +43
Clinton +43
VermontNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
95 LV
52%
19%
3%
Clinton +33
Clinton +33
HawaiiNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
73 LV
44%
29%
1%
Clinton +15
Clinton +15
WyomingNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
113 LV
25%
47%
9%
Trump +22
Trump +22
North DakotaNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
122 LV
22%
47%
2%
Trump +25
Trump +25
Rhode IslandNov. 1-7 Google Consumer Surveys
B
81 LV
41%
23%
5%
Clinton +18
Clinton +18
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:40 p.m.
Clinton 70.3%Trump 29.7%
New HampshireOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
196 LV
44%
42%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
UtahOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
286 LV
33%
40%
Trump +7
Trump +8
South DakotaOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
114 LV
29%
52%
Trump +23
Trump +23
IowaOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
416 LV
44%
44%
Tie
Trump +1
ArizonaOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
593 LV
42%
47%
Trump +5
Trump +5
KansasOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
361 LV
38%
54%
Trump +16
Trump +17
MontanaOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
115 LV
35%
54%
Trump +19
Trump +19
NevadaOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
339 LV
45%
42%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
IdahoOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
205 LV
30%
53%
Trump +23
Trump +23
MaineOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
245 LV
42%
35%
Clinton +7
Clinton +7
New MexicoOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
158 LV
41%
38%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
LouisianaOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
461 LV
36%
52%
Trump +15
Trump +16
ArkansasOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
331 LV
38%
53%
Trump +15
Trump +16
OklahomaOct. 17-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
432 LV
30%
61%
Trump +31
Trump +32
DelawareOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
138 LV
52%
36%
Clinton +16
Clinton +15
HawaiiOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
102 LV
47%
29%
Clinton +19
Clinton +18
Monday, Nov. 7, at 7:20 p.m.
Clinton 69.9%Trump 30.0%
VirginiaNov. 1-4 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,362 RV
47%
42%
4%
Clinton +5
Clinton +6
FloridaNov. 1-2 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,220 RV
46%
45%
4%
Clinton +1
Clinton +2
North CarolinaNov. 1-4 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,250 RV
46%
45%
3%
Clinton +1
Clinton +2
MichiganNov. 1-4 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,079 RV
46%
41%
3%
Clinton +5
Clinton +6
NationalNov. 5-7 The Times-Picayune/Lucid2,521 LV
45%
40%
5%
Clinton +5
Clinton +3
New MexicoNov. 1-2 Gravis Marketing
B-
1,327 RV
45%
37%
11%
Clinton +8
Clinton +9
Monday, Nov. 7, at 6:59 p.m.
Clinton 69.6%Trump 30.4%
WisconsinOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,794 LV
42%
38%
5%
Clinton +5
Clinton +3
VirginiaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
2,460 LV
46%
37%
6%
Clinton +9
Clinton +8
New YorkOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
4,663 LV
53%
31%
4%
Clinton +21
Clinton +20
New HampshireOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
430 LV
43%
34%
6%
Clinton +9
Clinton +7
New JerseyOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
2,377 LV
48%
36%
3%
Clinton +12
Clinton +10
OhioOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
3,455 LV
43%
42%
4%
Clinton +2
Tie
FloridaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
5,371 LV
44%
43%
3%
Clinton +1
Tie
North CarolinaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
2,916 LV
44%
41%
5%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
UtahOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
676 LV
24%
33%
12%
Trump +9
Trump +11
South DakotaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
246 LV
31%
50%
6%
Trump +18
Trump +20
MichiganOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
3,014 LV
42%
36%
5%
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
IowaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
972 LV
40%
37%
6%
Clinton +3
Clinton +1
GeorgiaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
2,663 LV
41%
45%
3%
Trump +5
Trump +6
GeorgiaNov. 6 Trafalgar Group
C
1,250 LV
45%
52%
2%
Trump +6
Trump +4
MissouriOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,814 LV
36%
43%
5%
Trump +8
Trump +9
OregonOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,112 LV
44%
36%
5%
Clinton +8
Clinton +6
CaliforniaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
8,746 LV
52%
30%
4%
Clinton +21
Clinton +20
AlabamaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,388 LV
32%
53%
4%
Trump +21
Trump +22
TennesseeOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,729 LV
34%
48%
4%
Trump +14
Trump +16
PennsylvaniaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
3,704 LV
43%
41%
4%
Clinton +2
Tie
ConnecticutOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
955 LV
47%
36%
5%
Clinton +11
Clinton +9
South CarolinaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,298 LV
36%
47%
4%
Trump +11
Trump +12
ArizonaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,567 LV
38%
46%
4%
Trump +9
Trump +10
NationalOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
84,292 LV
43%
39%
5%
Clinton +4
Clinton +2
KentuckyOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,229 LV
32%
52%
4%
Trump +20
Trump +21
MinnesotaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,736 LV
42%
36%
5%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
KansasOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
776 LV
32%
48%
8%
Trump +16
Trump +18
MarylandOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,652 LV
55%
29%
4%
Clinton +26
Clinton +24
ColoradoOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,556 LV
42%
37%
6%
Clinton +5
Clinton +4
WashingtonOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,985 LV
47%
32%
6%
Clinton +16
Clinton +14
MontanaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
307 LV
32%
44%
7%
Trump +12
Trump +14
NevadaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
656 LV
43%
41%
6%
Clinton +2
Tie
AlaskaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
201 LV
37%
38%
12%
Tie
Trump +2
IllinoisOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
3,448 LV
48%
33%
4%
Clinton +15
Clinton +14
IdahoOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
416 LV
25%
45%
7%
Trump +19
Trump +21
West VirginiaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
472 LV
26%
54%
5%
Trump +28
Trump +30
TexasOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
5,874 LV
37%
45%
5%
Trump +8
Trump +9
IndianaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,742 LV
37%
44%
6%
Trump +7
Trump +9
MaineOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
437 LV
39%
34%
9%
Clinton +5
Clinton +3
MassachusettsOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,963 LV
51%
29%
5%
Clinton +23
Clinton +21
New MexicoOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
508 LV
42%
35%
11%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
NebraskaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
506 LV
32%
45%
7%
Trump +13
Trump +14
LouisianaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
1,355 LV
36%
47%
5%
Trump +11
Trump +13
ArkansasOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
736 LV
31%
48%
5%
Trump +18
Trump +19
OklahomaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
949 LV
27%
53%
8%
Trump +27
Trump +28
MississippiOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
861 LV
40%
46%
2%
Trump +6
Trump +7
DelawareOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
260 LV
51%
32%
5%
Clinton +19
Clinton +18
District of ColumbiaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
190 LV
80%
7%
2%
Clinton +73
Clinton +71
VermontOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
191 LV
41%
25%
3%
Clinton +16
Clinton +14
HawaiiOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
289 LV
50%
28%
4%
Clinton +22
Clinton +21
WyomingOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
151 LV
26%
59%
6%
Trump +33
Trump +34
North DakotaOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
201 LV
32%
45%
5%
Trump +13
Trump +14
Rhode IslandOct. 4-Nov. 6 CCES / YouGov
B
287 LV
47%
29%
5%
Clinton +18
Clinton +16
Monday, Nov. 7, at 6:15 p.m.
Clinton 69.4%Trump 30.6%
WisconsinOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
625 LV
46%
40%
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
MissouriOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
401 LV
40%
48%
Trump +8
Trump +8
OregonOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
465 LV
47%
37%
Clinton +10
Clinton +10
TennesseeOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
538 LV
36%
50%
Trump +13
Trump +13
ConnecticutOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
351 LV
50%
40%
Clinton +10
Clinton +10
South CarolinaOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
251 LV
44%
49%
Trump +6
Trump +6
KentuckyOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
391 LV
38%
58%
Trump +21
Trump +21
MinnesotaOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
647 LV
44%
36%
Clinton +8
Clinton +8
MarylandOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
472 LV
56%
34%
Clinton +22
Clinton +22
ColoradoOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
536 LV
48%
42%
Clinton +5
Clinton +5
WashingtonOct. 24-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
562 LV
47%
38%
Clinton +8
Clinton +8
West VirginiaOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
180 LV
34%
58%
Trump +24
Trump +24
NebraskaOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
216 LV
32%
53%
Trump +22
Trump +22
MississippiOct. 23-Nov. 6 Ipsos
A-
184 LV
36%
53%
Trump +17
Trump +17
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 9:00 a.m. EST
Clinton 71.6%Trump 28.4%
Nov. 2-6 (2,195 LV)
Clinton 42%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3
(adjusted)
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 5:12 a.m. EST
Clinton 71.2%Trump 28.7%
Nov. 1-7 (2,972 LV)
Trump 47%
Clinton 44%
Trump +3
Clinton +2
(adjusted)
Nov. 4-7 (1,107 LV)
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 7%
Trump +2
Clinton +1
(adjusted)
Tuesday, Nov. 8, at 1:42 a.m. EST
Clinton 71.9%Trump 28.0%
Nov. 1-7 (2,246 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,183 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 41%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,208 LV)
Clinton 57%
Trump 32%
Johnson 5%
Clinton +25
Clinton +24
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (696 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 38%
Johnson 10%
Clinton +9
Clinton +8
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,377 LV)
Clinton 52%
Trump 37%
Johnson 4%
Clinton +15
Clinton +14
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,860 LV)
Trump 45%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 7%
Trump +3
Trump +4
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (4,092 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (3,126 LV)
Clinton 48%
Trump 41%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,479 LV)
Trump 34%
Clinton 31%
McMullin 25%
Johnson 7%
Trump +3
Trump +4
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (459 LV)
Trump 53%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 11%
Trump +21
Trump +22
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (3,145 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,781 LV)
Trump 47%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 9%
Trump +9
Trump +10
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,419 LV)
Clinton 45%
Trump 45%
Johnson 7%
Tie
Trump +1
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,368 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 8%
Trump +8
Trump +9
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,595 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 35%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +15
Clinton +14
(adjusted)
Nov. 4-6 (401 LV)
Clinton 58%
Trump 35%
Johnson 3%
Clinton +23
Clinton +23
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,712 LV)
Clinton 56%
Trump 31%
Johnson 6%
Clinton +25
Clinton +24
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,131 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 6%
Trump +19
Trump +20
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (1,433 LV)
Trump 49%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 5%
Trump +8
Trump +9
(adjusted)
Nov. 1-7 (2,845 LV)
Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 6%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
(adjusted)