Who will win the presidency?

Who’d Who would win the presidency today?

Chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

55.8%

Donald Trump

44.2%

FiveThirtyEight
ALAKAZARCACOFLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMIMNMSMOMTNENVNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWVWIWYVTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points

Electoral votes

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

278.3

Donald Trump

Trump

259.4

Gary Johnson

Johnson

0.3

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

46.4%

Donald Trump

Trump

44.9%

Gary Johnson

Johnson

7.4%

# How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

Show all states

# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton's chances

Trump's chances

One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

Key

One electoral vote

# How much each state matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.

Tipping-point chance

Florida
17.3%
Pennsylvania
11.8%
Michigan
10.8%
Ohio
9.3%
North Carolina
8.4%
Colorado
7.0%
Virginia
6.5%
Wisconsin
4.4%
Minnesota
3.9%
Nevada
3.1%

Voter power index

Nevada
3.8
New Hampshire
3.4
Colorado
3.4
Michigan
3.0
Pennsylvania
2.7
Florida
2.5
New Mexico
2.4
North Carolina
2.4
Delaware
2.4
Ohio
2.2
Show all states

# What to expect from the Electoral College

In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.

Swipe for state forecasts →

# Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.

Key

Average

test

80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes0.6%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt7.6%
Clinton wins popular vote61.2%
Trump wins popular vote38.7%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College6.8%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College1.3%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote2.0%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote14.6%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote6.7%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin6.7%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin2.6%
Map exactly the same as in 20120.3%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 201255.5%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 201285.9%

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Florida’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

44.1%

Donald Trump

55.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Pennsylvania’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

65.1%

Donald Trump

34.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Michigan’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

67.1%

Donald Trump

32.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Ohio’s
18 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

37.5%

Donald Trump

62.4%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning North Carolina’s
15 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

40.2%

Donald Trump

59.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Colorado’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

59.3%

Donald Trump

40.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Virginia’s
13 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

73.8%

Donald Trump

26.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Wisconsin’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

70.6%

Donald Trump

29.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Minnesota’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

72.5%

Donald Trump

27.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Nevada’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

44.7%

Donald Trump

55.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Georgia’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

16.9%

Donald Trump

83.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Arizona’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

23.6%

Donald Trump

76.4%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Hampshire’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

62.6%

Donald Trump

37.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Iowa’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

29.5%

Donald Trump

70.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Mexico’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

76.6%

Donald Trump

22.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Jersey’s
14 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

87.7%

Donald Trump

12.4%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Connecticut’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

90.5%

Donald Trump

9.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Delaware’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

83.0%

Donald Trump

16.9%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Oregon’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

87.3%

Donald Trump

12.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Washington’s
12 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

91.1%

Donald Trump

8.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Maine’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

69.3%

Donald Trump

30.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Rhode Island’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

83.2%

Donald Trump

16.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Texas’s
38 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

6.2%

Donald Trump

93.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning South Carolina’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

6.7%

Donald Trump

93.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Montana’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

10.1%

Donald Trump

89.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Illinois’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

94.0%

Donald Trump

6.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Alaska’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

13.1%

Donald Trump

86.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Kansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

5.1%

Donald Trump

94.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Mississippi’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

2.7%

Donald Trump

97.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning South Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

8.3%

Donald Trump

91.5%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Missouri’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

8.9%

Donald Trump

91.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Indiana’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

4.1%

Donald Trump

95.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Vermont’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

95.2%

Donald Trump

4.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning North Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

5.2%

Donald Trump

94.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning California’s
55 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.2%

Donald Trump

0.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Hawaii’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.0%

Donald Trump

1.0%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New York’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.8%

Donald Trump

1.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Alabama’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.4%

Donald Trump

99.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Utah’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.7%

Donald Trump

98.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Tennessee’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.3%

Donald Trump

98.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Massachusetts’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

97.9%

Donald Trump

2.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Louisiana’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.7%

Donald Trump

98.3%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Kentucky’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.3%

Donald Trump

98.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Arkansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.3%

Donald Trump

98.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning West Virginia’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.9%

Donald Trump

99.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Nebraska’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

3.2%

Donald Trump

96.8%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning District of Columbia’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Idaho’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.7%

Donald Trump

99.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Maryland’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.8%

Donald Trump

0.2%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Oklahoma’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

0.3%

Donald Trump

99.7%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Wyoming’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.3%

Donald Trump

98.6%

FiveThirtyEight

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.

Our latest coverage

From polls to an adjusted average

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 1,935 state and national polls.

Key

= New

A = ALL ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 8:06 a.m. EDT
POLLSTERGRADESAMPLE
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
LEADERADJUSTED LEADER
NationalSep. 20-26 USC Dornsife/LA Times2,690 LV
43%
46%
Trump +3Tie
Monday, Sept. 26, at 6:51 p.m.
ArizonaSep. 20-22 Data Orbital550 LV
38%
40%
9%
Trump +2
Trump +3
MassachusettsSep. 15-20 YouGov
B
700 LV
47%
34%
9%
Clinton +13
Clinton +12
Monday, Sept. 26, at 6:06 p.m.
PennsylvaniaSep. 12-23 Mercyhurst University420 LV
42%
41%
4%
Clinton +1Tie
Monday, Sept. 26, at 5:42 p.m.
New HampshireSep. 20-25 American Research Group
C+
522 RV
46%
42%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4
MinnesotaSep. 23 Gravis Marketing
B-
906 LV
43%
43%
4%
Tie
Clinton +1
North CarolinaSep. 23 Gravis Marketing
B-
694 LV
44%
43%
7%
Clinton +1
Clinton +2
PennsylvaniaSep. 23 Gravis Marketing
B-
949 LV
46%
43%
3%
Clinton +3
Clinton +4
New YorkSep. 21-23 Marist College
A
676 LV
52%
31%
7%
Clinton +21
Clinton +19
Monday, Sept. 26, at 4:23 p.m.
NationalSep. 19-25 SurveyMonkey
C-
13,598 LV
45%
40%
10%
Clinton +5
Clinton +6
MissouriSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
571 LV
44%
52%
Trump +9
Trump +9
WashingtonSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
488 LV
52%
43%
Clinton +10
Clinton +10
HawaiiSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
460 LV
64%
33%
Clinton +32
Clinton +31
AlabamaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
558 LV
36%
58%
Trump +22
Trump +22
ColoradoSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
538 LV
49%
45%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3
South CarolinaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
571 LV
41%
54%
Trump +13
Trump +13
West VirginiaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
466 LV
35%
59%
Trump +24
Trump +24
FloridaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
764 LV
46%
48%
Trump +2
Trump +2
IdahoSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
479 LV
33%
61%
Trump +28
Trump +28
ConnecticutSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
512 LV
54%
42%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12
MarylandSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
531 LV
58%
38%
Clinton +20
Clinton +20
VermontSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
465 LV
60%
36%
Clinton +25
Clinton +25
IllinoisSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
657 LV
54%
41%
Clinton +14
Clinton +13
District of ColumbiaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
486 LV
81%
14%
Clinton +66
Clinton +66
North CarolinaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
610 LV
46%
49%
Trump +2
Trump +2
PennsylvaniaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
605 LV
47%
48%
Trump +1
Trump +1
ArizonaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
554 LV
42%
52%
Trump +10
Trump +10
KansasSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
518 LV
38%
57%
Trump +19
Trump +19
LouisianaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
533 LV
39%
56%
Trump +18
Trump +17
WyomingSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
461 LV
29%
65%
Trump +36
Trump +36
DelawareSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
479 LV
54%
42%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12
IowaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
481 LV
47%
49%
Trump +2
Trump +2
ArkansasSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
483 LV
36%
58%
Trump +22
Trump +22
TennesseeSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
567 LV
38%
57%
Trump +19
Trump +19
TexasSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
798 LV
39%
56%
Trump +17
Trump +17
MontanaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
493 LV
38%
58%
Trump +20
Trump +20
CaliforniaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
951 LV
57%
38%
Clinton +19
Clinton +19
NebraskaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
529 LV
37%
59%
Trump +22
Trump +22
Rhode IslandSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
455 LV
56%
40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16
New YorkSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
724 LV
57%
39%
Clinton +18
Clinton +18
MinnesotaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
488 LV
50%
46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4
UtahSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
490 LV
28%
66%
Trump +39
Trump +39
MaineSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
460 LV
54%
43%
Clinton +11
Clinton +11
OklahomaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
506 LV
32%
64%
Trump +32
Trump +32
IndianaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
532 LV
41%
54%
Trump +14
Trump +14
WisconsinSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
553 LV
50%
46%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3
New JerseySep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
560 LV
56%
40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16
MichiganSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
549 LV
50%
46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4
North DakotaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
487 LV
36%
57%
Trump +21
Trump +21
KentuckySep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
523 LV
36%
59%
Trump +23
Trump +23
OhioSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
554 LV
48%
49%
Trump +1
Trump +1
OregonSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
508 LV
51%
44%
Clinton +7
Clinton +7
MassachusettsSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
501 LV
56%
40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16
MississippiSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
512 LV
41%
55%
Trump +14
Trump +14
VirginiaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
495 LV
46%
50%
Trump +4
Trump +4
NevadaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
540 LV
47%
46%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1
South DakotaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
459 LV
41%
55%
Trump +14
Trump +14
New MexicoSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
488 LV
50%
45%
Clinton +5
Clinton +5
New HampshireSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
493 LV
48%
47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1
AlaskaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
460 LV
40%
55%
Trump +15
Trump +15
GeorgiaSep. 12-25 CVOTER International
C+
639 LV
43%
51%
Trump +8
Trump +8
OhioSep. 15-22 TargetSmart/William & Mary652 LV
40%
37%
8%
Clinton +3
Clinton +1
Monday, Sept. 26, at 3:19 p.m.
TexasSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
462 LV
33%
48%
Trump +16
Trump +17
CaliforniaSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
705 LV
60%
28%
Clinton +32
Clinton +31
New YorkSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
535 LV
53%
34%
Clinton +19
Clinton +18
OhioSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
407 LV
46%
43%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2
North CarolinaSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
264 LV
49%
43%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
IllinoisSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
426 LV
53%
31%
Clinton +23
Clinton +22
VirginiaSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
452 LV
47%
40%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
FloridaSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
811 LV
49%
45%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3
PennsylvaniaSep. 16-22 Ipsos
A-
387 LV
46%
46%
Trump +1
Trump +2
IndianaSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
367 LV
35%
54%
Trump +19
Trump +20
MassachusettsSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
509 LV
54%
30%
Clinton +23
Clinton +22
TennesseeSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
447 LV
33%
47%
Trump +14
Trump +15
KentuckySep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
322 LV
37%
54%
Trump +16
Trump +18
ArizonaSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
428 LV
42%
48%
Trump +6
Trump +8
ColoradoSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
391 LV
42%
44%
Trump +2
Trump +3
MarylandSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
435 LV
50%
34%
Clinton +16
Clinton +15
GeorgiaSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
613 LV
43%
46%
Trump +3
Trump +5
WashingtonSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
429 LV
49%
35%
Clinton +14
Clinton +13
MinnesotaSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
510 LV
43%
36%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
WisconsinSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
526 LV
41%
41%
Tie
Trump +1
MichiganSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
632 LV
43%
42%
Clinton +1Tie
MissouriSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
356 LV
35%
51%
Trump +16
Trump +17
OregonSep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
381 LV
44%
41%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1
New JerseySep. 9-22 Ipsos
A-
853 LV
50%
32%
Clinton +18
Clinton +17
NebraskaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
169 LV
31%
54%
Trump +24
Trump +25
UtahSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
208 LV
31%
48%
Trump +17
Trump +19
MaineSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
247 LV
40%
38%
Clinton +2
Trump +1
DelawareSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
116 LV
40%
33%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
IowaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
344 LV
41%
51%
Trump +10
Trump +12
KansasSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
314 LV
36%
51%
Trump +15
Trump +17
MississippiSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
185 LV
38%
50%
Trump +12
Trump +14
MontanaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
130 LV
36%
54%
Trump +17
Trump +19
LouisianaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
369 LV
36%
52%
Trump +16
Trump +18
New MexicoSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
137 LV
47%
38%
Clinton +9
Clinton +7
South DakotaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
112 LV
28%
52%
Trump +23
Trump +25
NevadaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
294 LV
45%
45%
Tie
Trump +2
ConnecticutSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
440 LV
47%
37%
Clinton +10
Clinton +8
New HampshireSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
179 LV
51%
36%
Clinton +15
Clinton +13
IdahoSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
178 LV
32%
55%
Trump +23
Trump +25
West VirginiaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
146 LV
35%
52%
Trump +17
Trump +19
AlabamaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
403 LV
39%
53%
Trump +14
Trump +15
OklahomaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
332 LV
30%
55%
Trump +25
Trump +27
South CarolinaSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
317 LV
43%
50%
Trump +7
Trump +8
ArkansasSep. 2-22 Ipsos
A-
280 LV
41%
49%
Trump +8
Trump +10
Monday, Sept. 26, at 3:04 p.m.
PennsylvaniaSep. 21-22 Harper Polling
B-
500 LV
45%
43%
8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
Monday, Sept. 26, at 1:44 p.m.
NationalSep. 22-25 Monmouth University
A+
729 LV
46%
42%
8%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3
Monday, Sept. 26, at 1:10 p.m.
LouisianaSep. 22-24 JMC Enterprises
C
905 LV
35%
45%
6%
Trump +10
Trump +10
Monday, Sept. 26, at 12:47 p.m.
NationalSep. 18-24 CVOTER International
C+
1,022 LV
49%
46%
Clinton +2
Clinton +3
NationalSep. 17-23 CVOTER International
C+
1,091 LV
48%
47%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
NationalSep. 16-22 CVOTER International
C+
1,098 LV
49%
46%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3
NationalSep. 15-21 CVOTER International
C+
1,073 LV
49%
46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3
FloridaSep. 15-20 Cherry Communications
C
617 LV
43%
41%
8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
NationalSep. 14-20 CVOTER International
C+
1,075 LV
48%
47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1
NationalSep. 13-19 CVOTER International
C+
1,160 LV
49%
47%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
Monday, Sept. 26, at 11:48 a.m.
NationalSep. 19-25 CVOTER International
C+
1,052 LV
48%
47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1
IowaSep. 20-22 Loras College
B-
491 LV
38%
38%
9%
Trump +1
Trump +3
Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 8:06 a.m. EDT
Sep. 20-26 (2,690 LV)
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%
Trump +3
Tie (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 6:51 p.m. EDT
Sep. 20-22 (550 LV)
Trump 40%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 9%
Trump +2
Trump +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 15-20 (700 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 34%
Johnson 9%
Clinton +13
Clinton +12 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 6:06 p.m. EDT
Sep. 12-23 (420 LV)
Clinton 42%
Trump 41%
Johnson 4%
Clinton +1
Tie (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 5:42 p.m. EDT
Sep. 20-25 (522 RV)
Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Sep. 23 (906 LV)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Tie
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 23 (694 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 43%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +1
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 23 (949 LV)
Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Clinton +3
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Sep. 21-23 (676 LV)
Clinton 52%
Trump 31%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +21
Clinton +19 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 4:23 p.m. EDT
Sep. 19-25 (13,598 LV)
Clinton 45%
Trump 40%
Johnson 10%
Clinton +5
Clinton +6 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (571 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 44%
Trump +9
Trump +9 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (488 LV)
Clinton 52%
Trump 43%
Clinton +10
Clinton +10 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (460 LV)
Clinton 64%
Trump 33%
Clinton +32
Clinton +31 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (558 LV)
Trump 58%
Clinton 36%
Trump +22
Trump +22 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (538 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 45%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (571 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 41%
Trump +13
Trump +13 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (466 LV)
Trump 59%
Clinton 35%
Trump +24
Trump +24 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (764 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 46%
Trump +2
Trump +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (479 LV)
Trump 61%
Clinton 33%
Trump +28
Trump +28 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (512 LV)
Clinton 54%
Trump 42%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (531 LV)
Clinton 58%
Trump 38%
Clinton +20
Clinton +20 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (465 LV)
Clinton 60%
Trump 36%
Clinton +25
Clinton +25 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (657 LV)
Clinton 54%
Trump 41%
Clinton +14
Clinton +13 (adjusted)
Clinton 81%
Trump 14%
Clinton +66
Clinton +66 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (610 LV)
Trump 49%
Clinton 46%
Trump +2
Trump +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (605 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 47%
Trump +1
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (554 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 42%
Trump +10
Trump +10 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (518 LV)
Trump 57%
Clinton 38%
Trump +19
Trump +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (533 LV)
Trump 56%
Clinton 39%
Trump +18
Trump +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (461 LV)
Trump 65%
Clinton 29%
Trump +36
Trump +36 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (479 LV)
Clinton 54%
Trump 42%
Clinton +12
Clinton +12 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (481 LV)
Trump 49%
Clinton 47%
Trump +2
Trump +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (483 LV)
Trump 58%
Clinton 36%
Trump +22
Trump +22 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (567 LV)
Trump 57%
Clinton 38%
Trump +19
Trump +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (798 LV)
Trump 56%
Clinton 39%
Trump +17
Trump +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (493 LV)
Trump 58%
Clinton 38%
Trump +20
Trump +20 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (951 LV)
Clinton 57%
Trump 38%
Clinton +19
Clinton +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (529 LV)
Trump 59%
Clinton 37%
Trump +22
Trump +22 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (455 LV)
Clinton 56%
Trump 40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (724 LV)
Clinton 57%
Trump 39%
Clinton +18
Clinton +18 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (488 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (490 LV)
Trump 66%
Clinton 28%
Trump +39
Trump +39 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (460 LV)
Clinton 54%
Trump 43%
Clinton +11
Clinton +11 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (506 LV)
Trump 64%
Clinton 32%
Trump +32
Trump +32 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (532 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 41%
Trump +14
Trump +14 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (553 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 46%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (560 LV)
Clinton 56%
Trump 40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (549 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (487 LV)
Trump 57%
Clinton 36%
Trump +21
Trump +21 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (523 LV)
Trump 59%
Clinton 36%
Trump +23
Trump +23 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (554 LV)
Trump 49%
Clinton 48%
Trump +1
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (508 LV)
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
Clinton +7
Clinton +7 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (501 LV)
Clinton 56%
Trump 40%
Clinton +16
Clinton +16 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (512 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 41%
Trump +14
Trump +14 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (495 LV)
Trump 50%
Clinton 46%
Trump +4
Trump +4 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (540 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 46%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (459 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 41%
Trump +14
Trump +14 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (488 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 45%
Clinton +5
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (493 LV)
Clinton 48%
Trump 47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (460 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 40%
Trump +15
Trump +15 (adjusted)
Sep. 12-25 (639 LV)
Trump 51%
Clinton 43%
Trump +8
Trump +8 (adjusted)
Sep. 15-22 (652 LV)
Clinton 40%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +3
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 3:19 p.m. EDT
Sep. 16-22 (462 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 33%
Trump +16
Trump +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (705 LV)
Clinton 60%
Trump 28%
Clinton +32
Clinton +31 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (535 LV)
Clinton 53%
Trump 34%
Clinton +19
Clinton +18 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (407 LV)
Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Clinton +3
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (264 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 43%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (426 LV)
Clinton 53%
Trump 31%
Clinton +23
Clinton +22 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (452 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (811 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 45%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (387 LV)
Trump 46%
Clinton 46%
Trump +1
Trump +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (367 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 35%
Trump +19
Trump +20 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (509 LV)
Clinton 54%
Trump 30%
Clinton +23
Clinton +22 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (447 LV)
Trump 47%
Clinton 33%
Trump +14
Trump +15 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (322 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 37%
Trump +16
Trump +18 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (428 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 42%
Trump +6
Trump +8 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (391 LV)
Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Trump +2
Trump +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (435 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 34%
Clinton +16
Clinton +15 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (613 LV)
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%
Trump +3
Trump +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (429 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 35%
Clinton +14
Clinton +13 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (510 LV)
Clinton 43%
Trump 36%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (526 LV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 41%
Tie
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (632 LV)
Clinton 43%
Trump 42%
Clinton +1
Tie (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (356 LV)
Trump 51%
Clinton 35%
Trump +16
Trump +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (381 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 41%
Clinton +2
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 9-22 (853 LV)
Clinton 50%
Trump 32%
Clinton +18
Clinton +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (169 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 31%
Trump +24
Trump +25 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (208 LV)
Trump 48%
Clinton 31%
Trump +17
Trump +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (247 LV)
Clinton 40%
Trump 38%
Clinton +2
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (116 LV)
Clinton 40%
Trump 33%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (344 LV)
Trump 51%
Clinton 41%
Trump +10
Trump +12 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (314 LV)
Trump 51%
Clinton 36%
Trump +15
Trump +17 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (185 LV)
Trump 50%
Clinton 38%
Trump +12
Trump +14 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (130 LV)
Trump 54%
Clinton 36%
Trump +17
Trump +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (369 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%
Trump +16
Trump +18 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (137 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 38%
Clinton +9
Clinton +7 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (112 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 28%
Trump +23
Trump +25 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (294 LV)
Clinton 45%
Trump 45%
Tie
Trump +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (440 LV)
Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Clinton +10
Clinton +8 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (179 LV)
Clinton 51%
Trump 36%
Clinton +15
Clinton +13 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (178 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 32%
Trump +23
Trump +25 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (146 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 35%
Trump +17
Trump +19 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (403 LV)
Trump 53%
Clinton 39%
Trump +14
Trump +15 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (332 LV)
Trump 55%
Clinton 30%
Trump +25
Trump +27 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (317 LV)
Trump 50%
Clinton 43%
Trump +7
Trump +8 (adjusted)
Sep. 2-22 (280 LV)
Trump 49%
Clinton 41%
Trump +8
Trump +10 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 3:04 p.m. EDT
Sep. 21-22 (500 LV)
Clinton 45%
Trump 43%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 1:44 p.m. EDT
Sep. 22-25 (729 LV)
Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 1:10 p.m. EDT
Sep. 22-24 (905 LV)
Trump 45%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 6%
Trump +10
Trump +10 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 12:47 p.m. EDT
Sep. 18-24 (1,022 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 46%
Clinton +2
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 17-23 (1,091 LV)
Clinton 48%
Trump 47%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 16-22 (1,098 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 46%
Clinton +3
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 15-21 (1,073 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 46%
Clinton +4
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Sep. 15-20 (617 LV)
Clinton 43%
Trump 41%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Sep. 14-20 (1,075 LV)
Clinton 48%
Trump 47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 13-19 (1,160 LV)
Clinton 49%
Trump 47%
Clinton +2
Clinton +2 (adjusted)
Monday, Sept. 26, at 11:48 a.m. EDT
Sep. 19-25 (1,052 LV)
Clinton 48%
Trump 47%
Clinton +1
Clinton +1 (adjusted)
Sep. 20-22 (491 LV)
Trump 38%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 9%
Trump +1
Trump +3 (adjusted)
Show more updates ▾

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?