Who will win the presidency?

Who’d Who would win the presidency today?

Chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

88.5%

Donald Trump

11.4%

FiveThirtyEight

88.5%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

11.4%

Donald Trump

ALAKAZARCACOFLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMIMNMSMOMTNENVNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWVWIWYVTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points

Electoral votes

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

365.5

Donald Trump

Trump

171.9

Gary Johnson

Johnson

0.6

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

49.0%

Donald Trump

Trump

40.7%

Gary Johnson

Johnson

8.9%

# How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Key

Average

80% chance outcome falls in this range

Show all states

# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton's chances

Trump's chances

One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.

Key

One electoral vote

# How much each state matters

Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.

Tipping-point chance

Florida
17.9%
Ohio
11.5%
Pennsylvania
9.9%
North Carolina
8.5%
Virginia
7.7%
Colorado
5.4%
Michigan
4.6%
Minnesota
4.6%
Wisconsin
3.2%
Iowa
2.7%

Voter power index

New Hampshire
4.7
Nebraska 2nd District
3.2
Nevada
3.0
Ohio
2.7
Colorado
2.6
Virginia
2.6
Florida
2.6
North Carolina
2.4
Pennsylvania
2.3
Iowa
2.3
Show all states

# What to expect from the Electoral College

In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.

Swipe for state forecasts →

# Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.

Key

Average

test

80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes0.3%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt2.9%
Clinton wins popular vote90.3%
Trump wins popular vote9.7%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College2.4%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College0.7%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote4.5%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote41.7%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote1.1%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin39.4%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin0.6%
Map exactly the same as in 20120.5%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 201288.1%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 201246.5%

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Florida’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

79.6%

Donald Trump

20.4%

FiveThirtyEight

79.6%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

20.4%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Ohio’s
18 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

77.9%

Donald Trump

22.0%

FiveThirtyEight

77.9%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

22.0%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Pennsylvania’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

88.8%

Donald Trump

11.2%

FiveThirtyEight

88.8%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

11.2%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning North Carolina’s
15 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

76.0%

Donald Trump

24.0%

FiveThirtyEight

76.0%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

24.0%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Virginia’s
13 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

90.4%

Donald Trump

9.5%

FiveThirtyEight

90.4%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

9.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Colorado’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

90.1%

Donald Trump

9.6%

FiveThirtyEight

90.1%

Hillary Clinton

0.3%

Gary Johnson

9.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Michigan’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

93.3%

Donald Trump

6.7%

FiveThirtyEight

93.3%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

6.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Minnesota’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

90.1%

Donald Trump

9.7%

FiveThirtyEight

90.1%

Hillary Clinton

0.3%

Gary Johnson

9.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Wisconsin’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

93.0%

Donald Trump

6.9%

FiveThirtyEight

93.0%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

6.9%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Iowa’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

75.2%

Donald Trump

24.7%

FiveThirtyEight

75.2%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

24.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Hampshire’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

82.8%

Donald Trump

17.1%

FiveThirtyEight

82.8%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

17.1%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Nevada’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

78.4%

Donald Trump

21.5%

FiveThirtyEight

78.4%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

21.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Connecticut’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

94.4%

Donald Trump

5.5%

FiveThirtyEight

94.4%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

5.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Georgia’s
16 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

52.9%

Donald Trump

47.1%

FiveThirtyEight

52.9%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

47.1%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Arizona’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

56.6%

Donald Trump

43.3%

FiveThirtyEight

56.6%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

43.3%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Oregon’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

94.6%

Donald Trump

5.3%

FiveThirtyEight

94.6%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

5.3%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Washington’s
12 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

97.5%

Donald Trump

2.3%

FiveThirtyEight

97.5%

Hillary Clinton

0.2%

Gary Johnson

2.3%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Mexico’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

92.6%

Donald Trump

6.5%

FiveThirtyEight

92.6%

Hillary Clinton

1.0%

Gary Johnson

6.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New Jersey’s
14 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

96.3%

Donald Trump

3.7%

FiveThirtyEight

96.3%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

3.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Illinois’s
20 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

98.6%

Donald Trump

1.4%

FiveThirtyEight

98.6%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

1.4%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning South Carolina’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

43.3%

Donald Trump

56.6%

FiveThirtyEight

43.3%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

56.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Mississippi’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

14.3%

Donald Trump

85.7%

FiveThirtyEight

14.3%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

85.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Delaware’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

93.4%

Donald Trump

6.5%

FiveThirtyEight

93.4%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

6.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Texas’s
38 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

23.2%

Donald Trump

76.7%

FiveThirtyEight

23.2%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

76.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Maine’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

90.5%

Donald Trump

9.3%

FiveThirtyEight

90.5%

Hillary Clinton

0.2%

Gary Johnson

9.3%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2

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# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Arkansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

11.9%

Donald Trump

87.9%

FiveThirtyEight

11.9%

Hillary Clinton

0.2%

Gary Johnson

87.9%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Rhode Island’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

96.7%

Donald Trump

3.0%

FiveThirtyEight

96.7%

Hillary Clinton

0.3%

Gary Johnson

3.0%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Indiana’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

24.4%

Donald Trump

75.5%

FiveThirtyEight

24.4%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

75.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Missouri’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

41.5%

Donald Trump

58.4%

FiveThirtyEight

41.5%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

58.4%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning New York’s
29 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.4%

Donald Trump

0.6%

FiveThirtyEight

99.4%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

0.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning North Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

22.8%

Donald Trump

76.8%

FiveThirtyEight

22.8%

Hillary Clinton

0.4%

Gary Johnson

76.8%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Louisiana’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

7.4%

Donald Trump

92.5%

FiveThirtyEight

7.4%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

92.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Montana’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

27.8%

Donald Trump

70.9%

FiveThirtyEight

27.8%

Hillary Clinton

1.3%

Gary Johnson

70.9%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Nebraska’s 2 statewide electoral votes*

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

12.0%

Donald Trump

87.8%

FiveThirtyEight

12.0%

Hillary Clinton

0.2%

Gary Johnson

87.8%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Tennessee’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

13.5%

Donald Trump

86.5%

FiveThirtyEight

13.5%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

86.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning West Virginia’s
5 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

3.2%

Donald Trump

96.6%

FiveThirtyEight

3.2%

Hillary Clinton

0.2%

Gary Johnson

96.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning South Dakota’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

28.2%

Donald Trump

71.5%

FiveThirtyEight

28.2%

Hillary Clinton

0.4%

Gary Johnson

71.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Kentucky’s
8 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

13.2%

Donald Trump

86.7%

FiveThirtyEight

13.2%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

86.7%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Utah’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

21.9%

Donald Trump

77.5%

FiveThirtyEight

21.9%

Hillary Clinton

0.7%

Gary Johnson

77.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Vermont’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

97.0%

Donald Trump

2.9%

FiveThirtyEight

97.0%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

2.9%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning California’s
55 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.5%

Donald Trump

0.4%

FiveThirtyEight

99.5%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

0.4%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Alaska’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

26.0%

Donald Trump

72.6%

FiveThirtyEight

26.0%

Hillary Clinton

1.4%

Gary Johnson

72.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Hawaii’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.7%

Donald Trump

0.2%

FiveThirtyEight

99.7%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

0.2%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Wyoming’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

4.0%

Donald Trump

95.4%

FiveThirtyEight

4.0%

Hillary Clinton

0.5%

Gary Johnson

95.4%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Massachusetts’s
11 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.4%

Donald Trump

0.5%

FiveThirtyEight

99.4%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

0.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Kansas’s
6 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

19.2%

Donald Trump

80.6%

FiveThirtyEight

19.2%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

80.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Alabama’s
9 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.9%

Donald Trump

98.0%

FiveThirtyEight

1.9%

Hillary Clinton

0.1%

Gary Johnson

98.0%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning District of Columbia’s
3 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

>99.9%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

>99.9%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

<0.1%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Idaho’s
4 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

4.3%

Donald Trump

95.6%

FiveThirtyEight

4.3%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

95.6%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Maryland’s
10 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

99.8%

Donald Trump

<0.1%

FiveThirtyEight

99.8%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

<0.1%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Chance of winning Oklahoma’s
7 electoral votes

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

1.5%

Donald Trump

98.5%

FiveThirtyEight

1.5%

Hillary Clinton

<0.1%

Gary Johnson

98.5%

Donald Trump

Projected vote share over time

Chances over time

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

← Swipe for more forecasts →

# Latest polls

Our latest coverage

# From polls to a forecast

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.

Our latest coverage

From polls to an adjusted average

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?

We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 886 state and national polls.

Key

= New

A = ALL ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

Thursday, Aug. 18, at 10:31 a.m. EDT
POLLSTERGRADESAMPLE
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
LEADERADJUSTED LEADER
NationalAug. 10-16 CVOTER International
C+
1,069 LV
51%
44%
Clinton +7
Clinton +9
Thursday, Aug. 18, at 8:54 a.m.
NationalAug. 15-16 Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research
C+
1,000 LV
41%
39%
9%
Clinton +2
Clinton +3
Thursday, Aug. 18, at 7:34 a.m.
NationalAug. 11-17 USC Dornsife/LA Times2,500 LV
44%
43%
Clinton +1
Clinton +5
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 2:07 p.m.
VirginiaAug. 9-16 Quinnipiac University
A-
808 LV
45%
34%
11%
Clinton +11
Clinton +14
ColoradoAug. 9-16 Quinnipiac University
A-
830 LV
41%
33%
16%
Clinton +8
Clinton +11
IowaAug. 9-16 Quinnipiac University
A-
846 LV
41%
39%
12%
Clinton +2
Clinton +5
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 1:32 p.m.
IndianaAug. 13-16 Monmouth University
A+
403 LV
36%
47%
10%
Trump +11
Trump +12
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 12:37 p.m.
MissouriAug. 8-9 Public Policy Polling
B+
947 LV
42%
45%
Trump +3
Trump +1
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 10:02 a.m.
NationalAug. 14-16 YouGov
B
1,076 RV
41%
35%
7%
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 8:11 a.m.
MississippiAug. 11 Magellan Strategies
C
1,084 LV
39%
52%
3%
Trump +13
Trump +12
MichiganAug. 9-10 Mitchell Research & Communications
D
1,314 LV
44%
33%
9%
Clinton +11
Clinton +12
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 7:55 a.m.
NationalAug. 10-16 USC Dornsife/LA Times2,551 LV
44%
43%
Clinton +1
Clinton +6
NationalAug. 9-15 CVOTER International
C+
1,035 LV
51%
44%
Clinton +6
Clinton +9
Tuesday, Aug. 16, at 4:02 p.m.
NationalAug. 12-13 Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
C-
1,277 LV
38%
36%
8%
Clinton +2
Trump +1
NationalJul. 5-6 Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
C-
1,257 LV
41%
38%
5%
Clinton +3
Clinton +4
NationalMar. 21-24 Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
C-
1,335 LV
53%
35%
Clinton +18
Clinton +17
NationalMar. 18-21 Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
C-
1,792 LV
47%
40%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6
Tuesday, Aug. 16, at 3:10 p.m.
NationalAug. 11-15 Ipsos
A-
1,131 LV
40%
34%
8%
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
NationalAug. 10-14 Ipsos
A-
1,109 LV
41%
35%
8%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
NationalAug. 9-13 Ipsos
A-
1,137 LV
42%
35%
8%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5
NationalAug. 8-12 Ipsos
A-
1,167 LV
41%
35%
8%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
Thursday, Aug. 18, at 10:31 a.m. EDT
Aug. 10-16 (1,069 LV)
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
Clinton +7
Clinton +9 (adjusted)
Thursday, Aug. 18, at 8:54 a.m. EDT
Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Clinton +2
Clinton +3 (adjusted)
Thursday, Aug. 18, at 7:34 a.m. EDT
Aug. 11-17 (2,500 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 43%
Clinton +1
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 2:07 p.m. EDT
Aug. 9-16 (808 LV)
Clinton 45%
Trump 34%
Johnson 11%
Clinton +11
Clinton +14 (adjusted)
Aug. 9-16 (830 LV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 33%
Johnson 16%
Clinton +8
Clinton +11 (adjusted)
Aug. 9-16 (846 LV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 12%
Clinton +2
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 1:32 p.m. EDT
Aug. 13-16 (403 LV)
Trump 47%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 10%
Trump +11
Trump +12 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 12:37 p.m. EDT
Aug. 8-9 (947 LV)
Trump 45%
Clinton 42%
Trump +3
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 10:02 a.m. EDT
Aug. 14-16 (1,076 RV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 7%
Clinton +6
Clinton +6 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 8:11 a.m. EDT
Aug. 11 (1,084 LV)
Trump 52%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 3%
Trump +13
Trump +12 (adjusted)
Clinton 44%
Trump 33%
Johnson 9%
Clinton +11
Clinton +12 (adjusted)
Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 7:55 a.m. EDT
Aug. 10-16 (2,551 LV)
Clinton 44%
Trump 43%
Clinton +1
Clinton +6 (adjusted)
Aug. 9-15 (1,035 LV)
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
Clinton +6
Clinton +9 (adjusted)
Tuesday, Aug. 16, at 4:02 p.m. EDT
Clinton 38%
Trump 36%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +2
Trump +1 (adjusted)
Clinton 41%
Trump 38%
Johnson 5%
Clinton +3
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Clinton 53%
Trump 35%
Clinton +18
Clinton +17 (adjusted)
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%
Clinton +7
Clinton +6 (adjusted)
Tuesday, Aug. 16, at 3:10 p.m. EDT
Aug. 11-15 (1,131 LV)
Clinton 40%
Trump 34%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +6
Clinton +4 (adjusted)
Aug. 10-14 (1,109 LV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Aug. 9-13 (1,137 LV)
Clinton 42%
Trump 35%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +7
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Aug. 8-12 (1,167 LV)
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 8%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5 (adjusted)
Show more updates ▾

Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls?