FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo” rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Away team | CLE | DET | NO | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities Pre-game CARM-Elo point spread | 60% -2.5 | 24% | 17% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
40% | 76% -7 | 83% -10 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Home team | CHI | ATL | GS | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||||||||||
| Game | Away | Pre-game probabilities Pre-game CARM-Elo spread | Home | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 60% -2.5 | 40% | CHI | ||
| DET | 24% | 76% -7 | ATL | ||
| NO | 17% | 83% -10 | GS | ||
| Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. Simulation | Playoff Chances | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Carm-Elo | 1-Week Change | Team | Conf. | RecordProj. Record | Point Diff/G | Make PlayoffsMake Play-offs | Top Seed | Win Title | |
| 1645 | 1732 |  | Cavaliers | East | 63-19 | +9.3 | >99% | 77% | 28% | |
| 1743 | 1731 |  | Warriors | West | 60-22 | +8.1 | 98% | 32% | 18% | |
| 1564 | 1690 |  | Thunder | West | 58-24 | +7.0 | 97% | 21% | 11% | |
| 1667 | 1685 |  | Spurs | West | 57-25 | +6.6 | 97% | 20% | 11% | |
| 1647 | 1672 |  | Clippers | West | 56-26 | +6.0 | 95% | 13% | 9% | |
| 1617 | 1636 |  | Rockets | West | 52-30 | +4.5 | 88% | 7% | 5% | |
| 1583 | 1609 |  | Grizzlies | West | 50-32 | +3.5 | 81% | 4% | 3% | |
| 1520 | 1573 |  | Celtics | East | 49-33 | +3.0 | 90% | 7% | 2% | |
| 1570 | 1564 |  | Bulls | East | 48-34 | +2.6 | 88% | 5% | 2% | |
| 1521 | 1555 |  | Pelicans | West | 45-37 | +1.5 | 62% | <1% | 1% | |
| 1562 | 1543 |  | Hawks | East | 46-36 | +2.0 | 85% | 4% | 2% | |
| 1543 | 1542 |  | Jazz | West | 45-37 | +1.7 | 65% | 1% | 1% | |
| 1502 | 1526 |  | Raptors | East | 44-38 | +1.1 | 78% | 3% | 1% | |
| 1536 | 1498 |  | Wizards | East | 41-41 | -0.1 | 66% | 1% | <1% | |
| 1544 | 1489 |  | Mavericks | West | 38-44 | -1.2 | 29% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1440 | 1487 |  | Kings | West | 38-44 | -1.2 | 28% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1476 | 1485 |  | Suns | West | 39-43 | -1.0 | 30% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1427 | 1477 |  | Hornets | East | 39-43 | -0.6 | 60% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1544 | 1469 |  | Trail Blazers | West | 36-46 | -1.9 | 23% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1505 | 1465 |  | Pacers | East | 38-44 | -1.2 | 50% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1468 | 1460 |  | Heat | East | 37-45 | -1.6 | 48% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1472 | 1452 |  | Pistons | East | 37-45 | -1.7 | 45% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1360 | 1447 |  | Magic | East | 36-46 | -2.0 | 43% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1459 | 1432 |  | Bucks | East | 34-48 | -2.6 | 34% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1443 | 1360 |  | Nuggets | West | 29-53 | -5.1 | 5% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1324 | 1345 |  | Timberwolves | West | 25-57 | -6.5 | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1318 | 1327 |  | Knicks | East | 25-57 | -6.6 | 6% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1339 | 1318 |  | Lakers | West | 22-60 | -7.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1333 | 1295 |  | 76ers | East | 22-60 | -7.9 | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1470 | 1289 |  | Nets | East | 22-60 | -7.9 | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
During the NBA season, we use our CARMELO wins above replacement projections to adjust team ratings in response to trades and injuries.
| Date | Team | Amount | Reason |
|---|
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