2015-2016 NBA Predictions

2015-16 NBA Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo” rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history

UPDATED 10:43 pm EST | Jun 19

Games on Oct 27, 2015

Away team
CLEDETNOXXXXXXXXXXX
Pre-game win probabilities
Pre-game CARM-Elo point spread
60%
-2.5
24%
17%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40%
76%
-7
83%
-10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home team
CHIATLGSXXXXXXXXXXX
*If necessary
GameAway
Pre-game probabilities
Pre-game
CARM-Elo spread
Home
CLE
60%
-2.5
40%
 
CHI
 
DET
24%
 
76%
-7
ATL
 
NO
17%
 
83%
-10
GS
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 

Team-By-Team Forecast

Forecast from
Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPlayoff Chances
EloCarm-Elo1-Week ChangeTeamConf.RecordProj. RecordPoint Diff/GMake PlayoffsMake Play-offsTop SeedWin Title
16451732
CavaliersEast63-19+9.3>99%77%28%
17431731
WarriorsWest60-22+8.198%32%18%
15641690
ThunderWest58-24+7.097%21%11%
16671685
SpursWest57-25+6.697%20%11%
16471672
ClippersWest56-26+6.095%13%9%
16171636
RocketsWest52-30+4.588%7%5%
15831609
GrizzliesWest50-32+3.581%4%3%
15201573
CelticsEast49-33+3.090%7%2%
15701564
BullsEast48-34+2.688%5%2%
15211555
PelicansWest45-37+1.562%<1%1%
15621543
HawksEast46-36+2.085%4%2%
15431542
JazzWest45-37+1.765%1%1%
15021526
RaptorsEast44-38+1.178%3%1%
15361498
WizardsEast41-41-0.166%1%<1%
15441489
MavericksWest38-44-1.229%<1%<1%
14401487
KingsWest38-44-1.228%<1%<1%
14761485
SunsWest39-43-1.030%<1%<1%
14271477
HornetsEast39-43-0.660%<1%<1%
15441469
Trail BlazersWest36-46-1.923%<1%<1%
15051465
PacersEast38-44-1.250%<1%<1%
14681460
HeatEast37-45-1.648%<1%<1%
14721452
PistonsEast37-45-1.745%<1%<1%
13601447
MagicEast36-46-2.043%<1%<1%
14591432
BucksEast34-48-2.634%<1%<1%
14431360
NuggetsWest29-53-5.15%<1%<1%
13241345
TimberwolvesWest25-57-6.52%<1%<1%
13181327
KnicksEast25-57-6.66%<1%<1%
13391318
LakersWest22-60-7.8<1%<1%<1%
13331295
76ersEast22-60-7.93%<1%<1%
14701289
NetsEast22-60-7.93%<1%<1%

Carm-Elo Adjustments

During the NBA season, we use our CARMELO wins above replacement projections to adjust team ratings in response to trades and injuries.

DateTeamAmountReason
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.

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