2015-2016 NBA Predictions

2015-16 NBA Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo” rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history

UPDATED 11:07 pm EST | May 23

Games on May 24, 2016

Conference Finals
Game 4
Away team
GSXXXXXX
Pre-game win probabilities
Pre-game CARM-Elo point spread
39%
-
-
-
-
-
-
61%
-2.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home team
2-1OKC2-1XXXXXX
live
*If necessary
GameAway
Pre-game probabilities
Pre-game
CARM-Elo spread
Home
4GS
39%
 
61%
-2.5
OKC2-1
live
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 
X
NaN%
 
NaN%
 
X
 

Team-By-Team Forecast

Forecast from
Chance of making ...
EloCarm-Elo1-Week ChangeTeamConf.Point Diff/GConf. SemisConf. FinalsFinalsWin Title
17531759
+6
Thunder10-4West+6.764%42%
17811786
-6
Warriors9-4West+9.936%29%
16921702
-5
Cavaliers10-2East+6.071%23%
16231630
+5
Raptors10-8East+3.329%6%
15971604
+0
Heat7-7East+1.9
15931592
+0
Hawks4-6East+3.1
16111612
+0
Trail Blazers5-6West+0.4
17591765
+0
Spurs6-4West+10.5
15521556
+0
Celtics2-4East+2.5
14941493
+0
Pistons0-4East+0.2
15031504
+0
Mavericks1-4West-1.3
15591565
+0
Hornets3-4East+1.8
15361544
+0
Rockets1-4West-0.9
14381447
+0
Grizzlies0-4West-3.2
16101618
+0
Clippers2-4West+4.1
15421539
+0
Pacers3-4East+1.7
13921386
+0
BucksEast-4.2
14111410
+0
TimberwolvesWest-3.5
15301534
+0
WizardsEast-0.5
14271396
+0
NuggetsWest-3.1
13841384
+0
KnicksEast-2.7
12891270
+0
NetsEast-7.4
14541457
+0
BullsEast-1.5
15391526
+0
JazzWest+1.8
12751272
+0
LakersWest-9.6
12031198
+0
76ersEast-10.2
13741375
+0
PelicansWest-3.8
14251436
+0
KingsWest-2.5
14371443
+0
MagicEast-1.6
13561347
+0
SunsWest-6.6

Carm-Elo Adjustments

During the NBA season, we use our CARMELO wins above replacement projections to adjust team ratings in response to trades and injuries.

DateTeamAmountReason
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.

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