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Whites without college degrees are the bedrock of Donald Trump's coalition: Mitt Romney carried them by more than 20 percentage points in 2012, and Trump is on pace to well exceed that showing. However, they turn out at lower rates than whites with degrees, and their share of the electorate shrinks every four years. Non-college-educated whites skew older and rural and will be 46 percent of eligible voters in 2016, down from 49 percent in 2012. Nonetheless, they still factor heavily in key states, including Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump’s unpopularity among white voters with college degrees could be his Achilles’ heel and Hillary Clinton’s salvation. Most prominent in suburbs and in swing states such as Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, this growing segment turns out to vote much more reliably than any other group and has been increasingly leaning toward Democrats. In 2012, President Obama carried 257 of the 673 majority-white counties where over a third of residents ages 25 and older hold at least a bachelor's degree. In 2000, Al Gore carried just 169.
African-Americans are consistently Democrats’ best demographic group. Not only did they give President Obama 93 percent of their votes in 2012, but their turnout surpassed that of whites. There's little evidence that Trump is improving on Romney’s 6 percent showing, but without Obama on the ballot, Democrats will need to ensure black turnout remains high. If it declines, Clinton will have much less room for error in key states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Latino voters are about 11 percent of the eligible electorate in 2016, up 1 percentage point from four years ago. Romney received just 27 percent of their votes in 2012, and Trump is in danger of faring even worse. However, Latino voters tend to turn out at lower rates than whites and African-Americans and are heavily concentrated in non-battleground states, such as California, New York and Texas, limiting their influence in the Electoral College. High Latino turnout will be most crucial to Clinton's prospects in Florida and Nevada.
Although Asians and others (including Native Americans, Native Hawaiians and multiracial voters) made up just 5 percent of all voters in 2012, they are the fastest-growing segment of the voting-eligible population. Obama took 73 percent of the Asian vote in 2012, 2 points higher than his share among Latinos, and Trump could underperform past Republicans among this group. However, like Latinos, these voters are heavily concentrated in less competitive states such as California, Hawaii and Washington.
| Makeup of electorate | Vote | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electoral votes | Non-college-educated white | College-educated white | Black | Hispanic/Latino | Asian/Other | Clinton | Trump | Other | |
| US | 538 | 41.6% | 31.3% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 51.6% | 46.6% | 1.7% |
| AK | 3 | 40.6% | 30.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 22.0% | 41.4% | 54.2% | 4.3% |
| AL | 9 | 46.0% | 24.0% | 26.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 39.0% | 59.9% | 1.1% |
| AR | 6 | 54.3% | 26.4% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 37.3% | 60.1% | 2.6% |
| AZ | 11 | 41.6% | 32.1% | 3.9% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 45.6% | 52.7% | 1.7% |
| CA | 55 | 26.4% | 28.6% | 6.9% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 61.0% | 36.4% | 2.6% |
| CO | 9 | 41.6% | 41.5% | 2.9% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 51.9% | 45.7% | 2.4% |
| CT | 7 | 37.8% | 41.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 58.6% | 40.3% | 1.2% |
| DC | 3 | 2.2% | 40.6% | 49.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 90.8% | 7.4% | 1.8% |
| DE | 3 | 44.5% | 29.0% | 19.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 59.2% | 39.4% | 1.4% |
| FL | 29 | 40.1% | 25.0% | 13.5% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 50.9% | 48.3% | 0.9% |
| GA | 16 | 34.2% | 26.6% | 32.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 46.5% | 52.2% | 1.2% |
| HI | 4 | 15.2% | 20.2% | 2.3% | 7.9% | 54.4% | 70.6% | 27.7% | 1.6% |
| IA | 6 | 62.0% | 32.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 52.2% | 46.0% | 1.8% |
| ID | 4 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 0.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 33.0% | 64.1% | 2.8% |
| IL | 20 | 38.0% | 34.0% | 17.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 58.1% | 40.2% | 1.7% |
| IN | 11 | 54.6% | 30.5% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 44.3% | 53.7% | 1.9% |
| KS | 6 | 48.2% | 38.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 38.3% | 59.4% | 2.3% |
| KY | 8 | 62.2% | 27.6% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 38.1% | 60.2% | 1.7% |
| LA | 8 | 40.2% | 22.5% | 32.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 41.2% | 57.1% | 1.6% |
| MA | 11 | 40.0% | 45.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 61.0% | 37.2% | 1.8% |
| MD | 10 | 29.2% | 31.3% | 30.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 62.8% | 35.1% | 2.1% |
| ME | 2 | 61.6% | 35.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 56.5% | 40.7% | 2.7% |
| ME 1st | 1 | 54.8% | 41.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 59.8% | 37.9% | 2.2% |
| ME 2nd | 1 | 69.0% | 27.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 52.9% | 43.8% | 3.3% |
| MI | 16 | 52.5% | 29.4% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 54.3% | 44.6% | 1.1% |
| MN | 10 | 53.7% | 37.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 53.1% | 44.5% | 2.4% |
| MO | 10 | 53.2% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 44.7% | 53.5% | 1.8% |
| MS | 6 | 38.8% | 19.3% | 39.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 44.7% | 54.4% | 0.9% |
| MT | 3 | 56.7% | 34.2% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 41.9% | 55.2% | 2.9% |
| NC | 15 | 40.4% | 28.0% | 25.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 49.0% | 49.8% | 1.3% |
| ND | 3 | 59.6% | 32.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 39.1% | 57.9% | 3.0% |
| NE | 2 | 53.9% | 35.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 38.5% | 59.3% | 2.2% |
| NE 1st | 1 | 55.2% | 36.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 41.1% | 56.7% | 2.2% |
| NE 2nd | 1 | 41.4% | 43.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 46.0% | 52.2% | 1.8% |
| NE 3rd | 1 | 65.5% | 27.2% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 28.0% | 69.4% | 2.6% |
| NH | 4 | 56.5% | 39.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 52.1% | 46.3% | 1.6% |
| NJ | 14 | 32.9% | 34.8% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 59.2% | 39.7% | 1.0% |
| NM | 5 | 27.5% | 26.5% | 1.8% | 37.4% | 6.9% | 53.6% | 42.2% | 4.2% |
| NV | 6 | 41.9% | 24.1% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 53.2% | 44.7% | 2.1% |
| NY | 29 | 29.8% | 35.9% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 64.1% | 34.6% | 1.3% |
| OH | 18 | 53.3% | 29.5% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 50.9% | 47.4% | 1.6% |
| OK | 7 | 49.3% | 28.8% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 10.0% | 33.9% | 66.1% | 0.0% |
| OR | 7 | 53.1% | 35.4% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 54.7% | 41.8% | 3.6% |
| PA | 20 | 49.8% | 33.4% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 52.3% | 46.3% | 1.5% |
| RI | 4 | 49.2% | 35.5% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 62.8% | 35.1% | 2.1% |
| SC | 9 | 38.8% | 28.4% | 28.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 44.1% | 54.5% | 1.4% |
| SD | 3 | 54.6% | 34.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 40.4% | 57.4% | 2.2% |
| TN | 11 | 47.9% | 30.1% | 17.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 39.6% | 59.0% | 1.4% |
| TX | 38 | 31.4% | 29.4% | 14.8% | 20.1% | 4.3% | 42.4% | 56.1% | 1.5% |
| UT | 6 | 49.4% | 38.9% | 0.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 25.4% | 72.1% | 2.5% |
| VA | 13 | 36.7% | 34.8% | 19.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 51.8% | 46.6% | 1.6% |
| VT | 3 | 54.6% | 41.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 66.5% | 31.1% | 2.5% |
| WA | 12 | 47.2% | 34.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 10.3% | 56.6% | 40.9% | 2.5% |
| WI | 10 | 57.2% | 31.9% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 53.1% | 45.6% | 1.3% |
| WV | 5 | 65.7% | 27.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 35.8% | 62.0% | 2.2% |
| WY | 3 | 55.0% | 34.5% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 28.7% | 67.8% | 3.5% |