What Would It Take To Turn States ?

Change the settings below to see how shifts in party preference and turnout by different demographic groups would affect the 2016 presidential election. Read more »

PUBLISHED 2:00 PM EST | Dec 3, 2015

Democrats
Electoral votes: 332 ✔
Popular vote: 51.7%
Republicans
Electoral votes: 206 ✔
Popular vote: 46.6%
Electoral Votes:
D332 ✔
R206 ✔
Voting bloc:
College-educated white
Non-college-educated white
Black
Hispanic/Latino
Asian/Other
reset
How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party’s candidate by the five demographic groups. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national popular vote — taking into account how much of the state’s electorate the group accounts for.
A Breakdown Of The Demographic Groups
College-educated white

In 2012, Barack Obama performed 6 percentage points better among white voters with college degrees than those without them, up from a 5-point gap in 2008. Most prominent in suburbs and in swing states like Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia, this growing segment turns out to vote much more reliably than any other group, and Democrats have been on the upswing with these voters. In 2012, Obama carried 257 of the 673 majority-white counties where over a third of residents ages 25 and older hold at least a bachelor's degree. In 2000, Al Gore carried just 169 of these same counties.

Non-college-educated white

Whites without college degrees are now the bedrock of the Republican coalition: They voted for Mitt Romney 62 percent to 36 percent in 2012. However, their share of the electorate is rapidly shrinking: They skew older and more rural, and we project that their share of the national vote will fall to 33 percent in 2016, down from 36 percent in 2012. Nonetheless, they still factor heavily in battleground states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Black

Blacks are consistently Democrats’ best demographic group. Not only did they give Obama 93 percent of their vote in 2012, their turnout rate of 66 percent that year was 2 points higher than that of whites. If black turnout drops in 2016, Democrats will have much less room for error in key states such as Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Hispanic/Latino

Latino voters are a steadily growing share of the electorate, and they gave Obama 71 percent of their vote in 2012 — up 18 points from the 53 percent they gave the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry. However, they tend to turn out at much lower rates than whites and African-Americans and are heavily concentrated in non-battleground states like California, New York and Texas, limiting their influence in the Electoral College.

Asian/Other

Although Asians and others (including Native Americans, Native Hawaiians and multiracial voters) made up just 5 percent of all voters in 2012, they are the fastest-growing segment of the voting-eligible population. Obama took 73 percent of the Asian vote in 2012, 2 points higher than his share among Latinos. However, like Latinos, these voters are heavily concentrated in less competitive states such as California, New Mexico and Washington.

The Voting Blocs In Each State
Makeup of electorateVote
StateElectoral votesCollege-educated whiteNon-college-educated whiteBlackHispanic/LatinoAsian/OtherDemsReps
U.S.
538
51.7%
46.6%
Ala.
9
39.1%
59.9%
Alaska
3
41.6%
54.1%
Ariz.
11
45.1%
53.1%
Ark.
6
37.3%
60.2%
Calif.
55
60.8%
36.6%
Colo.
9
51.7%
45.9%
Conn.
7
58.7%
40.1%
Del.
3
59.0%
39.6%
D.C.
3
90.7%
7.5%
Fla.
29
50.7%
48.5%
Ga.
16
46.5%
52.3%
Hawaii
4
70.7%
27.7%
Idaho
4
33.2%
64.0%
Ill.
20
57.7%
40.6%
Ind.
11
44.4%
53.7%
Iowa
6
52.3%
45.9%
Kan.
6
38.3%
59.4%
Ky.
8
38.2%
60.1%
La.
8
41.3%
57.0%
Maine
4
56.8%
40.5%
Md.
10
63.1%
34.8%
Mass.
11
60.9%
37.2%
Mich.
16
54.3%
44.7%
Minn.
10
53.3%
44.3%
Miss.
6
44.2%
54.8%
Mo.
10
45.0%
53.1%
Mont.
3
42.5%
54.5%
Neb.
5
38.6%
59.3%
Nev.
6
53.0%
45.0%
N.H.
4
52.3%
46.1%
N.J.
14
59.2%
36.8%
N.M.
5
53.6%
42.2%
N.Y.
29
63.9%
34.7%
N.C.
15
49.1%
49.7%
N.D.
3
39.6%
57.4%
Ohio
18
50.9%
47.5%
Okla.
7
33.8%
66.2%
Ore.
7
54.7%
41.7%
Pa.
20
52.5%
46.0%
R.I.
4
63.4%
34.6%
S.C.
9
44.2%
54.5%
S.D.
3
40.3%
57.4%
Tenn.
11
39.4%
59.1%
Texas
38
42.3%
56.3%
Utah
6
25.0%
72.5%
Vt.
3
66.2%
31.4%
Va.
13
52.0%
46.5%
Wash.
12
56.6%
40.8%
W.Va.
5
35.8%
62.1%
Wis.
10
53.2%
45.5%
Wyo.
3
29.0%
67.4%

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