19 in 20

Chance the Democrat wins (95.8%)

1 in 20

Chance the Republican wins (4.2%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Michigan

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+10.7

    Adjusted polls

  • D+13.5

    CANTOR

  • D+16.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+20.5

    Experts

  • D+10.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+11.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+14.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 29 polls for the Michigan Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Stabenow
James
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 5
11/5
Mitchell Research & Communications827LV
0.61
49%46%D+3.0 <0.1 3.9 D+6.9
Nov 2-5
11/2-5
Trafalgar Group1,817LV
2.25
53%44%D+9.0 <0.1 1.4 D+10.4
Nov 4
11/4
Mitchell Research & Communications701LV
0.46
53%46%D+7.0 <0.1 3.9 D+10.9
Nov 2-4
11/2-4
Change Research880LV
1.66
49%47%D+2.0 <0.1 0.6 D+1.4
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Research Co.450RV
0.94
52%36%D+16.0 0.2 <0.1 0.5 D+16.3
Oct 29-30
10/29-30
Gravis Marketing764LV
1.18
54%41%D+13.0 <0.1 1.4 D+14.4
Oct 25-27
10/25-27
Glengariff Group, Inc.600LV
0.85
53%36%D+16.7 <0.1 2.7 D+14.0
Oct 24-26
10/24-26
Emerson College822LV
1.28
52%43%D+9.4 <0.1 0.6 D+10.0
Oct 25
10/25
Mitchell Research & Communications400LV
0.09
52%46%D+6.0 <0.1 3.9 D+9.9
Oct 22-24
10/22-24
Target Insyght800LV
0.70
53%43%D+10.0 <0.1 1.8 D+11.8
Oct 18-23
10/18-23
EPIC-MRA600LV
0.75
49%42%D+7.0 <0.1 0.1 D+6.9
Oct 20-22
10/20-22
Tarrance Group
R
605LV
0.61
48%41%D+7.0 <0.1 4.6 D+11.6
Oct 13-22
10/13-22
Michigan State University169A
0.12
49%42%D+7.0 1.4 <0.1 1.7 D+7.3
Oct 14-18
10/14-18
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)600LV
0.46
53%37%D+16.0 <0.1 0.4 D+15.6
Sep 30-Oct 7
9/30-10/7
Mitchell Research & Communications
R
654LV
0.01
51%42%D+8.8 <0.1 5.7 D+14.5
Sep 30-Oct 2
9/30-10/2
Glengariff Group, Inc.600LV
0.06
53%35%D+18.0 <0.1 2.7 D+15.3
Sep 21-25
9/21-25
EPIC-MRA600LV
0.04
56%33%D+23.0 0.1 0.1 D+22.8
Sep 14-21
9/14-21
Ipsos1,150LV
0.19
55%35%D+19.3 0.1 0.6 D+19.8
Sep 10-14
9/10-14
Target Insyght800LV
0.01
55%40%D+15.0 0.1 1.8 D+16.7
Sep 12-13
9/12-13
Mitchell Research & Communications1,009LV
0.00
54%41%D+13.0 0.1 3.9 D+16.8
Sep 8-9
9/8-9
Strategic National1,000LV
0.08
53%35%D+18.0 0.2 1.0 D+16.9
Sep 5-7
9/5-7
Glengariff Group, Inc.600LV
0.01
56%33%D+22.9 0.1 2.7 D+20.1
Aug 14-16
8/14-16
Gravis Marketing647LV
0.00
51%35%D+16.0 0.4 1.4 D+17.8
Aug 13-14
8/13-14
Strategic National700LV
0.00
50%35%D+15.0 0.4 1.0 D+14.4
Aug 11-14
8/11-14
Tarrance Group
R
602LV
0.00
49%38%D+11.0 0.4 4.6 D+16.1
Jul 19-21
7/19-21
Emerson College600LV
0.00
47%29%D+18.7 0.6 0.6 D+19.9
Jul 15-19
7/15-19
Marist College886RV
0.01
55%37%D+18.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 D+17.9
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey901LV
0.00
53%43%D+10.6 0.8 1.0 D+12.4
Jan 16-19
1/16-19
Glengariff Group, Inc.600LV
0.00
51%30%D+21.0 0.1 2.7 D+18.4
Weighted averageD+10.7
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Ohio81D+11.9
Wisconsin80D+12.2
Pennsylvania76D+11.7
Minnesota (special)73D+8.5
Minnesota73D+20.4
Iowa70
Indiana68D+3.0
Illinois61
Missouri60D+0.5
North Carolina56No race

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Likely D
D+12.1D+12.7
Inside Elections
Solid D
D+24.1D+25.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
D+24.1D+23.8
AverageD+20.1D+20.5

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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