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Who’s On Track For The Nomination?

Tracking a candidate’s progress requires more than straight delegate counts. We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. See who’s on track and who’s falling behind.


UPDATED 4:29 PM EDT | May 18, 2016

The Democratic National Committee includes 712 “superdelegates,” usually elected officials and party leaders, whose votes at the convention are not bound to a candidate based on primary and caucus results. Because superdelegates can change their preferences before the convention, we are not including them in our delegate targets.

Hillary Clinton

We expect Clinton to pick up more delegates in states with higher populations of African-Americans, Latinos, seniors, and moderate and conservative Democrats.

States are sized according to number of delegates available

Bernie Sanders

We expect Sanders to pick up more delegates in states with lower nonwhite populations and higher shares of young, liberal and working-class Democrats.

States are sized according to number of delegates available
clintonsanders
DateState Or TerritoryTotal delegatesWon/TargetWon/Target
Feb. 1Iowa44
23/18
21/26
Feb. 9New Hampshire24
9/9
15/15
Feb. 20Nevada35
20/17
15/18
Feb. 27South Carolina53
39/32
14/21
March 1Alabama53
44/35
9/18
American Samoa6
4/3
2/3
Arkansas32
22/18
10/14
Colorado66
25/30
41/36
Georgia102
73/65
29/37
Massachusetts91
46/41
45/50
Minnesota77
31/30
46/47
Oklahoma38
17/18
21/20
Tennessee67
44/33
23/34
Texas222
147/126
75/96
Vermont16
0/2
16/14
Virginia95
62/52
33/43
March 5Kansas33
10/14
23/19
Louisiana51
37/33
14/18
Nebraska25
10/10
15/15
March 6Maine25
8/10
17/15
March 8Michigan130
63/63
67/67
Mississippi36
31/23
5/13
March 12Northern Marianas6
4/3
2/3
March 15Florida214
141/116
73/98
Illinois156
79/85
77/71
Missouri71
36/36
35/35
North Carolina107
60/57
47/50
Ohio143
81/71
62/72
March 21Democrats Abroad13
4/6.5
9/6.5
March 22Arizona75
42/34
33/41
Idaho23
5/9
18/14
Utah33
6/14
27/19
March 26Alaska16
3/7
13/9
Hawaii25
8/12
17/13
Washington101
27/42
74/59
April 5Wisconsin86
38/38
48/48
April 9Wyoming14
7/5
7/9
April 19New York247
139/122
108/125
April 26Connecticut55
28/27
27/28
Delaware21
12/11
9/10
Maryland95
61/53
34/42
Pennsylvania189
106/93
83/96
Rhode Island24
11/11
13/13
May 3Indiana83
39/39
44/44
May 7Guam7
4/3.5
3/3.5
May 10West Virginia29
11/12
18/17
May 17Kentucky55
28/27
27/28
Oregon61
26/24
35/37
June 4Virgin Islands7
/3.5
/3.5
June 5Puerto Rico60
/30
/30
June 7California475
/236
/239
Montana21
/8
/13
New Jersey126
/65
/61
New Mexico34
/16
/18
South Dakota20
/8
/12
North Dakota18
/7
/11
June 14District of Columbia20
/12
/8
TOTAL4,051
1,771/1,640
1,499/1,630
clintonsanders
DateState/ TerritoryTotal delegates TotalWon/TargetWon/Target
2/1Iowa44
23/18
21/26
2/9N.H.24
9/9
15/15
2/20Nev.35
20/17
15/18
2/27S.C.53
39/32
14/21
3/1Ala.53
44/35
9/18
A.S.6
4/3
2/3
Ark.32
22/18
10/14
Colo.66
25/30
41/36
Ga.102
73/65
29/37
Mass.91
46/41
45/50
Minn.77
31/30
46/47
Okla.38
17/18
21/20
Tenn.67
44/33
23/34
Texas222
147/126
75/96
Vt.16
0/2
16/14
Va.95
62/52
33/43
3/5Kan.33
10/14
23/19
La.51
37/33
14/18
Neb.25
10/10
15/15
3/6Maine25
8/10
17/15
3/8Mich.130
63/63
67/67
Miss.36
31/23
5/13
3/12 C.N.M.I.6
4/3
2/3
3/15Fla.214
141/116
73/98
Ill.156
79/85
77/71
Mo.71
36/36
35/35
N.C.107
60/57
47/50
Ohio143
81/71
62/72
3/2113
4/6.5
9/6.5
3/22Ariz.75
42/34
33/41
Idaho23
5/9
18/14
Utah33
6/14
27/19
3/26Alaska16
3/7
13/9
Hawaii25
8/12
17/13
Wash.101
27/42
74/59
4/5Wis.86
38/38
48/48
4/9Wyo.14
7/5
7/9
4/19N.Y.247
139/122
108/125
4/26Conn.55
28/27
27/28
Del.21
12/11
9/10
Md.95
61/53
34/42
Pa.189
106/93
83/96
R.I.24
11/11
13/13
5/3Ind.83
39/39
44/44
5/7Guam7
4/3.5
3/3.5
5/10W.Va.29
11/12
18/17
5/17Ky.55
28/27
27/28
Ore.61
26/24
35/37
6/4V.I.7
/3.5
/3.5
6/5P.R.60
/30
/30
6/7Calif.475
/236
/239
Mont.21
/8
/13
N.J.126
/65
/61
N.M.34
/16
/18
S.D.20
/8
/12
N.D.18
/7
/11
6/14D.C.20
/12
/8
TOTAL4,051
1,771/1,640
1,499/1,630
Methodology

These interactive charts show which candidate is on target to win the Democratic nomination and which one is falling behind. They are based on our estimate of how many delegates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders would need in each primary and caucus to win a simple majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.

We reached these estimates by developing benchmarks for each state based on its demographics. In particular, we used exit polls to determine the racial composition of the Democratic electorate in each state, how each state lines up on a liberal-conservative scale, and whether Democratic voters live in rural or conservative areas. Sanders does better in whiter, more liberal and more rural states. Clinton does better in states with more nonwhite voters — especially African-Americans. For more detail about these procedures, see this article.

After we arrived at baseline estimates of candidate support, we adjusted their support proportionally in each state until both candidates were tied nationally. Finally, we multiplied each candidate’s adjusted share of support by the number of pledged delegates available in each state to arrive at delegate targets (unlike Republicans, Democrats award all of their pledged delegates proportionally). Because there is limited data available to model the 99 pledged delegates from six delegations — American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands — we set both Clinton’s and Sanders’s targets in those contests at half of the delegates available.

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