2016 Election Primary forecasts Delegates National polls Endorsements Facebook map

2016 National Primary Polls

National polling averages for the Democratic and Republican primaries.

UPDATED 9:52 AM EDT | May 26, 2016

We’re collecting national polls for the Democratic primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.

If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.

For the Democratic primary, we’ve collected 723 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling average.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
May 20-23 YouGov711 LV
1.50
Clinton +11
52%
41%
May 16-22 SurveyMonkey4,888 RV
1.29
Clinton +9
51%
42%
May 16-19 Washington Post-ABC News829 RV
1.13
Clinton +14
56%
42%
May 15-19 NBC/Wall Street Journal342 LV
1.13
Clinton +8
53%
45%
May 19-23 Morning Consult975 RV
1.01
Clinton +6
48%
42%
May 13-17 CBS News371 LV
0.98
Clinton +7
51%
44%
May 20-24 Ipsos, online215 LV
0.82
Clinton +24
58%
34%
May 16-19 Washington Post-ABC News373 RV
0.76
Clinton +14
56%
42%
Apr. 28-May 1 Opinion Research Corporation405 RV
0.33
Clinton +8
51%
43%
Apr. 20-24 Suffolk University363 LV
0.31
Clinton +5
50%
45%
May 20-23
711 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%
May 16-22
4,888 RV
Clinton +9
Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%
May 16-19
829 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 56%
Sanders 42%
May 15-19
342 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 53%
Sanders 45%
May 19-23
975 RV
Clinton +6
Clinton 48%
Sanders 42%
May 13-17
371 LV
Clinton +7
Clinton 51%
Sanders 44%
May 20-24
215 LV
Clinton +24
Clinton 58%
Sanders 34%
May 16-19
373 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 56%
Sanders 42%
Apr. 28-May 1
405 RV
Clinton +8
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%
Apr. 20-24
363 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 50%
Sanders 45%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Harry Enten, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

CommentsAdd Comment