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2016 National Primary Polls

National polling averages for the Democratic and Republican primaries.

UPDATED 6:54 PM EDT | Jun 29, 2016

We’re collecting national polls for the Democratic primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.

If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.

For the Democratic primary, we’ve collected 772 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling average.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
Jun. 10-13 Selzer & Co.486 LV
1.16
Clinton +2
45%
43%
Jun. 26-28 Fox News432 RV
1.01
Clinton +21
58%
37%
Jun. 24-28 Ipsos, online229 LV
0.90
Clinton +33
66%
33%
Jun. 18-20 YouGov390 LV
0.87
Clinton +13
55%
42%
Jun. 15-20 Morning Consult1,733 RV
0.87
Clinton +18
53%
35%
Jun. 16-19 Opinion Research Corporation435 RV
0.73
Clinton +12
55%
43%
Jun. 6-12 SurveyMonkey3,092 RV
0.64
Clinton +22
58%
36%
May 24-30 Quinnipiac University678 RV
0.32
Clinton +14
53%
39%
May 31-Jun. 5 IBD/TIPP394 RV
0.29
Clinton +14
51%
37%
Jun. 2-5 YouGov698 LV
0.21
Clinton +11
52%
41%
Jun. 10-13
486 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 45%
Sanders 43%
Jun. 26-28
432 RV
Clinton +21
Clinton 58%
Sanders 37%
Jun. 24-28
229 LV
Clinton +33
Clinton 66%
Sanders 33%
Jun. 18-20
390 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 55%
Sanders 42%
Jun. 15-20
1,733 RV
Clinton +18
Clinton 53%
Sanders 35%
Jun. 16-19
435 RV
Clinton +12
Clinton 55%
Sanders 43%
Jun. 6-12
3,092 RV
Clinton +22
Clinton 58%
Sanders 36%
May 24-30
678 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 53%
Sanders 39%
May 31-Jun. 5
394 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 51%
Sanders 37%
Jun. 2-5
698 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Harry Enten, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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