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2016 National Primary Polls

National polling averages for the Democratic and Republican primaries.

UPDATED 7:49 PM EDT | Jun 28, 2016

We’re collecting national polls for the Republican primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.

If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.

For the Republican primary, we’ve collected 670 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling average.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Christie
Fiorina
Santorum
Paul
Huckabee
Apr. 25-May 1 SurveyMonkey3,479 RV
1.30
Trump +34
56%
14%
22%
Apr. 22-26 YouGov499 LV
0.99
Trump +21
49%
19%
28%
Apr. 28-May 1 Opinion Research Corporation406 RV
0.98
Trump +24
49%
19%
25%
Apr. 29-May 2 Morning Consult723 RV
0.96
Trump +36
56%
13%
20%
Apr. 29-May 3 Ipsos, online244 LV
0.94
Trump +30
56%
17%
26%
Apr. 20-24 Suffolk University292 LV
0.78
Trump +16
45%
17%
29%
Apr. 22-28 IBD/TIPP397 RV
0.69
Trump +19
48%
16%
29%
Apr. 11-13 Fox News419 LV
0.57
Trump +18
45%
25%
27%
Apr. 10-14 NBC/Wall Street Journal310 LV
0.55
Trump +5
40%
24%
35%
Apr. 8-12 CBS News399 LV
0.54
Trump +13
42%
18%
29%
Apr. 25-May 1
3,479 RV
Trump +34
Trump 56%
Cruz 22%
Kasich 14%
Apr. 22-26
499 LV
Trump +21
Trump 49%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 19%
Apr. 28-May 1
406 RV
Trump +24
Trump 49%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 19%
Apr. 29-May 2
723 RV
Trump +36
Trump 56%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 13%
Apr. 29-May 3
244 LV
Trump +30
Trump 56%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 17%
Apr. 20-24
292 LV
Trump +16
Trump 45%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 17%
Apr. 22-28
397 RV
Trump +19
Trump 48%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 16%
Apr. 11-13
419 LV
Trump +18
Trump 45%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 25%
Apr. 10-14
310 LV
Trump +5
Trump 40%
Cruz 35%
Kasich 24%
Apr. 8-12
399 LV
Trump +13
Trump 42%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 18%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Harry Enten, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta, Andrei Scheinkman and Nate Silver. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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