According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had an 89% chance of winning the California primary.
Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the California Democratic primary, we’ve collected 24 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Clinton | Sanders | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | May 31-Jun. 3 | YouGov | 674 | LV | 0.59 | Clinton +2 | 49% | 47% |
| • | May 26-31 | Field Poll | 571 | LV | 0.50 | Clinton +2 | 45% | 43% |
| • | May 29-31 | Marist College | 557 | LV | 0.43 | Clinton +2 | 49% | 47% |
| • | May 31-Jun. 2 | American Research Group | 400 | LV | 0.33 | Clinton +1 | 48% | 47% |
| • | May 19-22 | SurveyUSA | 803 | LV | 0.10 | Clinton +18 | 57% | 39% |
| • | May 19-31 | USC Dornsife | 412 | LV | 0.08 | Clinton +10 | 49% | 39% |
| • | May 13-22 | PPIC | 552 | LV | 0.02 | Clinton +2 | 46% | 44% |
| • | May 4-16 | YouGov | 694 | LV | 0.00 | Clinton +13 | 51% | 38% |
| • | Apr. 28-May 1 | Sextant Strategies | 1,617 | RV | 0.00 | Clinton +10 | 49% | 39% |
| • | Apr. 27-30 | SurveyUSA | 826 | LV | 0.00 | Clinton +19 | 57% | 38% |
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