FiveThirtyEight’s
Primary
Forecasts
Updated
Chance of winning Indiana
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Cruz
30%
▲
65%
▲
Trump
70%
▼
35%
▼
Kasich
<1%
<1%
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Clinton
87%
▲
92%
▲
Sanders
13%
▼
8%
▼
See forecasts for more primaries
Chance of winning California
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Trump
89%
67%
▼
Cruz
9%
30%
▲
Kasich
2%
3%
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Clinton
77%
91%
Sanders
23%
9%
See forecasts for more primaries
