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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Arizona »

D Arizona Democratic primary

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Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

There’s no forecast for Arizona yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.

Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Arizona Democratic primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•Mar. 7-11 Merrill Poll300 LV
0.15
Clinton +26
50%
24%
•Feb. 24 MBQF739 LV
0.03
Clinton +34
56%
22%
•Oct. 24-Nov. 5 Behavior Research Center186 RV
0.00
Clinton +28
47%
19%
•Aug. 13-16 Gravis Marketing427 LV
0.00
Clinton +22
56%
34%
•May 1-3 Public Policy Polling268 LV
0.00
Clinton +42
58%
16%
•Mar. 7-11
Merrill Poll
300 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 50%
Sanders 24%
•Feb. 24
MBQF
739 LV
Clinton +34
Clinton 56%
Sanders 22%
•Oct. 24-Nov. 5
Behavior Research Center
186 RV
Clinton +28
Clinton 47%
Sanders 19%
•Aug. 13-16
Gravis Marketing
427 LV
Clinton +22
Clinton 56%
Sanders 34%
•May 1-3
Public Policy Polling
268 LV
Clinton +42
Clinton 58%
Sanders 16%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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