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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 91% chance of winning the Arizona primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Arizona Republican primary, we’ve collected 14 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Mar. 20 Opinion Savvy607 LV
0.63
Trump +13
46%
33%
17%
Mar. 7-11 Merrill Poll300 LV
0.04
Trump +12
31%
19%
10%
Mar. 8 MBQF751 LV
0.04
Trump +14
37%
23%
15%
Feb. 22 MBQF736 LV
0.00
Trump +12*
35%
14%
7%
Jan. 19 MBQF771 LV
0.00
Trump +22
38%
16%
3%
Oct. 24-Nov. 5 Behavior Research Center226 RV
0.00
Carson +2*
21%
5%
1%
Oct. 29 MBQF1,057 LV
0.00
Carson +1*
25%
15%
3%
Sep. 21 MBQF1,569 LV
0.00
Trump +4*
23%
2%
Sep. 12 MBQF643 LV
0.00
Trump +9*
30%
6%
3%
Aug. 17 MBQF787 LV
0.00
Trump +13*
28%
9%
4%
Aug. 13-16 Gravis Marketing844 LV
0.00
Trump +17*
33%
8%
4%
Aug. 3 Silver Bullet677 LV
0.00
Trump +16*
33%
5%
5%
Jul. 29 MBQF758 LV
0.00
Trump +14*
27%
6%
May 1-3 Public Policy Polling300 LV
0.00
Walker +2*
9%
Mar. 20
607 LV
Trump +13
Trump 46%
Cruz 33%
Kasich 17%
Mar. 7-11
300 LV
Trump +12
Trump 31%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 10%
Mar. 8
751 LV
Trump +14
Trump 37%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 15%
Feb. 22
736 LV
Trump +12*
Trump 35%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 7%
Jan. 19
771 LV
Trump +22
Trump 38%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 3%
Oct. 24-Nov. 5
226 RV
Carson +2*
Trump 21%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 1%
Oct. 29
1,057 LV
Carson +1*
Trump 25%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 3%
Sep. 21
1,569 LV
Trump +4*
Trump 23%
Kasich 2%
Sep. 12
643 LV
Trump +9*
Trump 30%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 3%
Aug. 17
787 LV
Trump +13*
Trump 28%
Cruz 9%
Kasich 4%
Aug. 13-16
844 LV
Trump +17*
Trump 33%
Cruz 8%
Kasich 4%
Aug. 3
677 LV
Trump +16*
Trump 33%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 5%
Jul. 29
758 LV
Trump +14*
Trump 27%
Cruz 6%
May 1-3
300 LV
Walker +2*
Cruz 9%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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