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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had an 89% chance of winning the California primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the California Democratic primary, we’ve collected 24 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
May 31-Jun. 3 YouGov674 LV
0.59
Clinton +2
49%
47%
May 26-31 Field Poll571 LV
0.50
Clinton +2
45%
43%
May 29-31 Marist College557 LV
0.43
Clinton +2
49%
47%
May 31-Jun. 2 American Research Group400 LV
0.33
Clinton +1
48%
47%
May 19-22 SurveyUSA803 LV
0.10
Clinton +18
57%
39%
May 19-31 USC Dornsife412 LV
0.08
Clinton +10
49%
39%
May 13-22 PPIC552 LV
0.02
Clinton +2
46%
44%
May 4-16 YouGov694 LV
0.00
Clinton +13
51%
38%
Apr. 28-May 1 Sextant Strategies1,617 RV
0.00
Clinton +10
49%
39%
Apr. 27-30 SurveyUSA826 LV
0.00
Clinton +19
57%
38%
May 31-Jun. 3
674 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 49%
Sanders 47%
May 26-31
571 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 45%
Sanders 43%
May 29-31
557 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 49%
Sanders 47%
May 31-Jun. 2
400 LV
Clinton +1
Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%
May 19-22
803 LV
Clinton +18
Clinton 57%
Sanders 39%
May 19-31
412 LV
Clinton +10
Clinton 49%
Sanders 39%
May 13-22
552 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 46%
Sanders 44%
May 4-16
694 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 51%
Sanders 38%
Apr. 28-May 1
1,617 RV
Clinton +10
Clinton 49%
Sanders 39%
Apr. 27-30
826 LV
Clinton +19
Clinton 57%
Sanders 38%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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