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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 76% chance of winning the Connecticut primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Connecticut Democratic primary, we’ve collected six polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Apr. 22-24 Public Policy Polling709 LV
1.04
Clinton +2
48%
46%
Apr. 12-18 Quinnipiac University1,037 LV
0.22
Clinton +9
51%
42%
Apr. 10-11 Emerson College356 LV
0.03
Clinton +6
49%
43%
Nov. 13-16 Emerson College251 LV
0.00
Clinton +19
50%
31%
Oct. 7-11 Quinnipiac University610 RV
0.00
Clinton +12
37%
25%
Mar. 6-9 Quinnipiac University459 RV
0.00
Clinton +38*
53%
2%
Apr. 22-24
709 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 48%
Sanders 46%
Apr. 12-18
1,037 LV
Clinton +9
Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%
Apr. 10-11
356 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 49%
Sanders 43%
Nov. 13-16
251 LV
Clinton +19
Clinton 50%
Sanders 31%
Oct. 7-11
610 RV
Clinton +12
Clinton 37%
Sanders 25%
Mar. 6-9
459 RV
Clinton +38*
Clinton 53%
Sanders 2%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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