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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 6:54 PM EDT | Jun 29, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Florida primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Florida Democratic primary, we’ve collected 38 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Mar. 11-12 Public Policy Polling627 LV
0.88
Clinton +25
57%
32%
Mar. 8-13 Quinnipiac University519 LV
0.74
Clinton +26
60%
34%
Mar. 9-11 YouGov796 LV
0.60
Clinton +28
62%
34%
Mar. 11-13 American Research Group400 LV
0.57
Clinton +21
58%
37%
Mar. 7-9 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.500 LV
0.40
Clinton +45
68%
23%
Mar. 4-6 SurveyUSA823 LV
0.37
Clinton +31
61%
30%
Mar. 8-11 Florida Atlantic University414 LV
0.32
Clinton +28
59%
31%
Mar. 4-10 Marist College500 LV
0.32
Clinton +27
61%
34%
Mar. 2-6 Opinion Research Corporation264 LV
0.11
Clinton +27
61%
34%
Mar. 2-5 Tarrance Group449 LV
0.08
Clinton +38
64%
26%
Mar. 11-12
627 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 57%
Sanders 32%
Mar. 8-13
519 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 60%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 9-11
796 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 62%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 11-13
400 LV
Clinton +21
Clinton 58%
Sanders 37%
Mar. 7-9
500 LV
Clinton +45
Clinton 68%
Sanders 23%
Mar. 4-6
823 LV
Clinton +31
Clinton 61%
Sanders 30%
Mar. 8-11
414 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 59%
Sanders 31%
Mar. 4-10
500 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 61%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 2-6
264 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 61%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 2-5
449 LV
Clinton +38
Clinton 64%
Sanders 26%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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