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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Florida »

I Florida Republican primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 97% chance of winning the Florida primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Florida Republican primary, we’ve collected 59 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
•Mar. 11-13 Monmouth University405 LV
0.93
Trump +17
44%
27%
17%
9%
•Mar. 12-13 Trafalgar Group1,500 LV
0.91
Trump +20
44%
24%
20%
9%
•Mar. 8-13 Quinnipiac University615 LV
0.76
Trump +24
46%
22%
14%
10%
•Mar. 13 Opinion Savvy787 LV
0.66
Trump +18
44%
26%
18%
10%
•Mar. 9-11 YouGov873 LV
0.57
Trump +20
44%
21%
24%
9%
•Mar. 11-13 American Research Group400 LV
0.54
Trump +25
49%
24%
16%
8%
•Mar. 7-9 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.700 LV
0.43
Trump +6
36%
30%
17%
8%
•Mar. 8-11 Florida Atlantic University852 LV
0.38
Trump +23
44%
21%
21%
9%
•Mar. 7-8 Public Policy Polling904 LV
0.35
Trump +10
42%
32%
14%
8%
•Mar. 4-6 SurveyUSA937 LV
0.35
Trump +20
42%
22%
17%
10%
•Mar. 11-13
Monmouth University
405 LV
Trump +17
Trump 44%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 9%
•Mar. 12-13
Trafalgar Group
1,500 LV
Trump +20
Trump 44%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 9%
•Mar. 8-13
Quinnipiac University
615 LV
Trump +24
Trump 46%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 10%
•Mar. 13
Opinion Savvy
787 LV
Trump +18
Trump 44%
Rubio 26%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 10%
•Mar. 9-11
YouGov
873 LV
Trump +20
Trump 44%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 9%
•Mar. 11-13
American Research Group
400 LV
Trump +25
Trump 49%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 8%
•Mar. 7-9
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
700 LV
Trump +6
Trump 36%
Rubio 30%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 8%
•Mar. 8-11
Florida Atlantic University
852 LV
Trump +23
Trump 44%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 9%
•Mar. 7-8
Public Policy Polling
904 LV
Trump +10
Trump 42%
Rubio 32%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 8%
•Mar. 4-6
SurveyUSA
937 LV
Trump +20
Trump 42%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 10%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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