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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 3:30 PM EDT | May 30, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had an 88% chance of winning the Georgia primary.

John Kasich and Ben Carson had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Georgia Republican primary, we’ve collected 26 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
Feb. 28 Landmark Communications1,400 LV
1.22
Trump +19
39%
20%
15%
9%
8%
Feb. 26-28 Trafalgar Group1,350 LV
0.79
Trump +15
39%
24%
21%
6%
7%
Feb. 27-28 Opinion Savvy710 LV
0.57
Trump +10
33%
23%
23%
6%
11%
Feb. 22-23 SurveyUSA684 LV
0.52
Trump +26
45%
19%
16%
8%
6%
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey1,171 RV
0.44
Trump +18
39%
20%
21%
9%
6%
Feb. 22-26 YouGov493 LV
0.35
Trump +11
40%
22%
29%
7%
2%
Feb. 18-23 Marist College543 LV
0.21
Trump +7
30%
23%
23%
9%
9%
Feb. 22-24 ResearchNow400 LV
0.20
Trump +23
41%
18%
15%
8%
7%
Feb. 22-23 Opinion Savvy745 LV
0.02
Trump +12
34%
22%
20%
8%
9%
Feb. 21 Landmark Communications500 LV
0.01
Trump +9
32%
23%
19%
8%
8%
Feb. 28
1,400 LV
Trump +19
Trump 39%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 15%
Carson 9%
Kasich 8%
Feb. 26-28
1,350 LV
Trump +15
Trump 39%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 21%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
Feb. 27-28
710 LV
Trump +10
Trump 33%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 23%
Kasich 11%
Carson 6%
Feb. 22-23
684 LV
Trump +26
Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 16%
Carson 8%
Kasich 6%
Feb. 22-29
1,171 RV
Trump +18
Trump 39%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 20%
Carson 9%
Kasich 6%
Feb. 22-26
493 LV
Trump +11
Trump 40%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 22%
Carson 7%
Kasich 2%
Feb. 18-23
543 LV
Trump +7
Trump 30%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 23%
Carson 9%
Kasich 9%
Feb. 22-24
400 LV
Trump +23
Trump 41%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 15%
Carson 8%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 22-23
745 LV
Trump +12
Trump 34%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 9%
Carson 8%
Feb. 21
500 LV
Trump +9
Trump 32%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 19%
Carson 8%
Kasich 8%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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