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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had an 88% chance of winning the Illinois primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Illinois Democratic primary, we’ve collected 10 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Mar. 11-12 Public Policy Polling597 LV
0.86
Clinton +3
48%
45%
Mar. 12 McKeon & Associates428 LV
0.72
Clinton +1
31%
30%
Mar. 9-11 YouGov722 LV
0.58
Sanders +2
46%
48%
Mar. 4-10 Marist College529 LV
0.33
Clinton +6
51%
45%
Mar. 7 We Ask America994 LV
0.23
Clinton +37
62%
25%
Mar. 2-6 Research America Inc.600 LV
0.10
Clinton +42
67%
25%
Feb. 24 We Ask America1,116 LV
0.00
Clinton +29
57%
28%
Feb. 15-20 Southern Illinois U.422 RV
0.00
Clinton +19
51%
32%
Oct. 20 McKeon & Associates831 LV
0.00
Clinton +31
43%
12%
Jul. 20-21 Public Policy Polling409 LV
0.00
Clinton +37
60%
23%
Mar. 11-12
597 LV
Clinton +3
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
Mar. 12
428 LV
Clinton +1
Clinton 31%
Sanders 30%
Mar. 9-11
722 LV
Sanders +2
Sanders 48%
Clinton 46%
Mar. 4-10
529 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 51%
Sanders 45%
Mar. 7
994 LV
Clinton +37
Clinton 62%
Sanders 25%
Mar. 2-6
600 LV
Clinton +42
Clinton 67%
Sanders 25%
Feb. 24
1,116 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 57%
Sanders 28%
Feb. 15-20
422 RV
Clinton +19
Clinton 51%
Sanders 32%
Oct. 20
831 LV
Clinton +31
Clinton 43%
Sanders 12%
Jul. 20-21
409 LV
Clinton +37
Clinton 60%
Sanders 23%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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