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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 62% chance of winning the Illinois primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Illinois Republican primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Mar. 9-11 YouGov770 LV
0.67
Trump +4
38%
34%
16%
11%
Mar. 4-10 Marist College421 LV
0.35
Trump +9
34%
25%
21%
16%
Mar. 7 We Ask America1,009 LV
0.28
Trump +13
33%
20%
18%
11%
Mar. 2-6 Research America Inc.600 LV
0.13
Trump +10
32%
22%
18%
21%
Feb. 24 We Ask America1,311 LV
0.00
Trump +17
38%
16%
9%
21%
Feb. 15-20 Southern Illinois U.306 RV
0.00
Trump +13
28%
15%
13%
14%
Dec. 20 Compass Consulting2,104 LV
0.00
Trump +15
30%
15%
3%
13%
Dec. 16 Compass Consulting2,104 LV
0.00
Trump +15
31%
16%
3%
13%
Aug. 16-18 Victory Research801 LV
0.00
Trump +6*
23%
4%
2%
5%
Jul. 20-21 Public Policy Polling369 LV
0.00
Walker +5*
18%
4%
1%
6%
Feb. 5 Ogden & Fry971 LV
0.00
Walker +19*
8%
Mar. 9-11
770 LV
Trump +4
Trump 38%
Cruz 34%
Kasich 16%
Rubio 11%
Mar. 4-10
421 LV
Trump +9
Trump 34%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 16%
Mar. 7
1,009 LV
Trump +13
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 18%
Rubio 11%
Mar. 2-6
600 LV
Trump +10
Trump 32%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 18%
Feb. 24
1,311 LV
Trump +17
Trump 38%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 9%
Feb. 15-20
306 RV
Trump +13
Trump 28%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 14%
Kasich 13%
Dec. 20
2,104 LV
Trump +15
Trump 30%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 3%
Dec. 16
2,104 LV
Trump +15
Trump 31%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 3%
Aug. 16-18
801 LV
Trump +6*
Trump 23%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 4%
Kasich 2%
Jul. 20-21
369 LV
Walker +5*
Trump 18%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 4%
Kasich 1%
Feb. 5
971 LV
Walker +19*
Rubio 8%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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