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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 46% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Paul
Bush
Huckabee
Christie
Kasich
Fiorina
Santorum

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Iowa Republican caucuses, we’ve collected 84 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Paul
Bush
Huckabee
Christie
Fiorina
Kasich
Santorum
Jan. 26-29 Selzer & Co.602 LV
1.05
Trump +5
28%
23%
15%
10%
5%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
Jan. 25-31 Quinnipiac University890 LV
1.04
Trump +7
31%
24%
17%
8%
4%
4%
3%
1%
2%
2%
1%
Jan. 29-31 Emerson College298 LV
0.69
Trump +1
27%
26%
22%
3%
3%
4%
5%
3%
2%
4%
1%
Jan. 29-30 Opinion Savvy887 LV
0.60
Trump +1
20%
19%
19%
9%
9%
5%
4%
3%
4%
4%
2%
Jan. 26-27 Public Policy Polling780 LV
0.55
Trump +8
31%
23%
14%
9%
4%
4%
4%
2%
3%
2%
1%
Jan. 26-27 Gravis Marketing724 LV
0.39
Trump +4
31%
27%
13%
7%
2%
6%
2%
3%
3%
4%
1%
Jan. 24-26 Marist College450 LV
0.34
Trump +7
32%
25%
18%
8%
2%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Jan. 23-26 Monmouth University500 LV
0.34
Trump +7
30%
23%
16%
10%
3%
4%
3%
2%
2%
3%
1%
Jan. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.11
Trump +7
33%
26%
11%
7%
4%
3%
2%
4%
1%
3%
1%
Jan. 18-21 YouGov492 LV
0.07
Trump +5
39%
34%
13%
5%
3%
1%
0%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Jan. 26-29
602 LV
Trump +5
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Bush 2%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jan. 25-31
890 LV
Trump +7
Trump 31%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 17%
Carson 8%
Bush 4%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 2%
Christie 1%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 29-31
298 LV
Trump +1
Trump 27%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 22%
Huckabee 5%
Bush 4%
Kasich 4%
Carson 3%
Christie 3%
Paul 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 29-30
887 LV
Trump +1
Trump 20%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 19%
Carson 9%
Paul 9%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 4%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Santorum 2%
Jan. 26-27
780 LV
Trump +8
Trump 31%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 14%
Carson 9%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Paul 4%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 26-27
724 LV
Trump +4
Trump 31%
Cruz 27%
Rubio 13%
Carson 7%
Bush 6%
Kasich 4%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 2%
Paul 2%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 24-26
450 LV
Trump +7
Trump 32%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 18%
Carson 8%
Bush 4%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Jan. 23-26
500 LV
Trump +7
Trump 30%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 16%
Carson 10%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 21-24
400 LV
Trump +7
Trump 33%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 11%
Carson 7%
Christie 4%
Paul 4%
Bush 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Jan. 18-21
492 LV
Trump +5
Trump 39%
Cruz 34%
Rubio 13%
Carson 5%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Bush 1%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Santorum 1%
Huckabee 0%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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