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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 96% chance of winning the Louisiana primary.

Marco Rubio and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Louisiana Republican primary, we’ve collected six polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Mar. 3 Gravis Marketing1,356 LV
1.10
Trump +17
48%
31%
15%
6%
Mar. 2 U. New Orleans1,874 RV
0.73
Trump +12
38%
26%
11%
5%
Mar. 1-2 Trafalgar Group1,509 LV
0.71
Trump +18
44%
26%
15%
5%
Mar. 1 Magellan Strategies609 LV
0.50
Trump +20
41%
21%
15%
9%
Sep. 20-23 Clarus Research Group800 LV
0.00
Carson +4*
19%
6%
9%
3%
Aug. 2 Opinion Savvy490 LV
0.00
Trump +13*
29%
10%
4%
3%
Mar. 3
1,356 LV
Trump +17
Trump 48%
Cruz 31%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 6%
Mar. 2
1,874 RV
Trump +12
Trump 38%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 5%
Mar. 1-2
1,509 LV
Trump +18
Trump 44%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 5%
Mar. 1
609 LV
Trump +20
Trump 41%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Sep. 20-23
800 LV
Carson +4*
Trump 19%
Rubio 9%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 3%
Aug. 2
490 LV
Trump +13*
Trump 29%
Cruz 10%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 3%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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