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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Maryland »

T Maryland Democratic primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 97% chance of winning the Maryland primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Maryland Democratic primary, we’ve collected 13 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•Apr. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.52
Clinton +6
50%
44%
•Apr. 18-20 Monmouth University300 LV
0.32
Clinton +25
57%
32%
•Apr. 15-17 Public Policy Polling492 LV
0.18
Clinton +25
58%
33%
•Apr. 5-9 Marist College775 LV
0.03
Clinton +22
58%
36%
•Mar. 30-Apr. 3 The Washington Post539 LV
0.00
Clinton +15
55%
40%
•Mar. 4-8 Opinion Works400 LV
0.00
Clinton +33
61%
28%
•Feb. 29-Mar. 4 Gonzales/Arscott Research411 LV
0.00
Clinton +31
57%
26%
•Feb. 13-18 Goucher College307 LV
0.00
Clinton +30
58%
28%
•Jan. 11-16 Gonzales Research402 LV
0.00
Clinton +13
40%
27%
•Nov. 13-17 Opinion Works419 LV
0.00
Clinton +33
56%
23%
•Oct. 8-11 Abt SRBI490 RV
0.00
Clinton +17*
43%
20%
•Sep. 26-Oct. 1 Goucher College300 LV
0.00
Clinton +20*
43%
17%
•Feb. 13-16 The Washington Post538 LV
0.00
Clinton +63*
72%
•Apr. 21-24
American Research Group
400 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 50%
Sanders 44%
•Apr. 18-20
Monmouth University
300 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 57%
Sanders 32%
•Apr. 15-17
Public Policy Polling
492 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 58%
Sanders 33%
•Apr. 5-9
Marist College
775 LV
Clinton +22
Clinton 58%
Sanders 36%
•Mar. 30-Apr. 3
The Washington Post
539 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
•Mar. 4-8
Opinion Works
400 LV
Clinton +33
Clinton 61%
Sanders 28%
•Feb. 29-Mar. 4
Gonzales/Arscott Research
411 LV
Clinton +31
Clinton 57%
Sanders 26%
•Feb. 13-18
Goucher College
307 LV
Clinton +30
Clinton 58%
Sanders 28%
•Jan. 11-16
Gonzales Research
402 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 40%
Sanders 27%
•Nov. 13-17
Opinion Works
419 LV
Clinton +33
Clinton 56%
Sanders 23%
•Oct. 8-11
Abt SRBI
490 RV
Clinton +17*
Clinton 43%
Sanders 20%
•Sep. 26-Oct. 1
Goucher College
300 LV
Clinton +20*
Clinton 43%
Sanders 17%
•Feb. 13-16
The Washington Post
538 LV
Clinton +63*
Clinton 72%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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