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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 7:49 PM EDT | Jun 28, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 94% chance of winning the Massachusetts primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Massachusetts Democratic primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Feb. 26-28 Emerson College670 LV
0.91
Clinton +11
54%
43%
Feb. 25-27 Suffolk University500 LV
0.73
Clinton +8
50%
42%
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey1,224 RV
0.45
Clinton +2
48%
46%
Feb. 21-23 MassINC Polling Group418 LV
0.23
Clinton +5
49%
44%
Feb. 19-25 YouGov400 LV
0.19
Clinton +3
47%
44%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling538 LV
0.04
Sanders +7
42%
49%
Feb. 19-21 Emerson College417 LV
0.02
Tie
46%
46%
Nov. 19-22 Suffolk University241 LV
0.00
Clinton +25
54%
29%
Oct. 16-18 Emerson College265 LV
0.00
Clinton +34
59%
25%
Mar. 14-19 Emerson College
0.00
Clinton +27*
43%
6%
Jan. 19-21 Gravis Marketing358 RV
0.00
Clinton +24*
46%
Feb. 26-28
670 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 54%
Sanders 43%
Feb. 25-27
500 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 50%
Sanders 42%
Feb. 22-29
1,224 RV
Clinton +2
Clinton 48%
Sanders 46%
Feb. 21-23
418 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 49%
Sanders 44%
Feb. 19-25
400 LV
Clinton +3
Clinton 47%
Sanders 44%
Feb. 14-16
538 LV
Sanders +7
Sanders 49%
Clinton 42%
Feb. 19-21
417 LV
Tie
Clinton 46%
Sanders 46%
Nov. 19-22
241 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 54%
Sanders 29%
Oct. 16-18
265 LV
Clinton +34
Clinton 59%
Sanders 25%
Mar. 14-19
Clinton +27*
Clinton 43%
Sanders 6%
Jan. 19-21
358 RV
Clinton +24*
Clinton 46%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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