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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 11:44 PM EDT | May 31, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Michigan Democratic primary, we’ve collected 20 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Mar. 6 Mitchell Research & Communications475 LV
0.82
Clinton +37
66%
29%
Mar. 3-6 Monmouth University302 LV
0.66
Clinton +13
55%
42%
Mar. 2-4 YouGov597 LV
0.50
Clinton +11
55%
44%
Mar. 1-3 Marist College546 LV
0.50
Clinton +17
57%
40%
Mar. 4-5 American Research Group400 LV
0.48
Clinton +24
60%
36%
Feb. 29-Mar. 1 EPIC-MRA400 LV
0.18
Clinton +25
56%
31%
Mar. 2-3 Mitchell Research & Communications616 LV
0.10
Clinton +18
55%
37%
Feb. 22-27 Marketing Resource Group (MRG)218 LV
0.04
Clinton +20
56%
36%
Jan. 25-Mar. 3 Michigan State University262 LV
0.03
Clinton +5
52%
47%
Mar. 1 Mitchell Research & Communications427 LV
0.02
Clinton +28
61%
33%
Mar. 6
475 LV
Clinton +37
Clinton 66%
Sanders 29%
Mar. 3-6
302 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 55%
Sanders 42%
Mar. 2-4
597 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 55%
Sanders 44%
Mar. 1-3
546 LV
Clinton +17
Clinton 57%
Sanders 40%
Mar. 4-5
400 LV
Clinton +24
Clinton 60%
Sanders 36%
Feb. 29-Mar. 1
400 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 56%
Sanders 31%
Mar. 2-3
616 LV
Clinton +18
Clinton 55%
Sanders 37%
Feb. 22-27
218 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 56%
Sanders 36%
Jan. 25-Mar. 3
262 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 52%
Sanders 47%
Mar. 1
427 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 61%
Sanders 33%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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