2016 Election Primary forecasts Delegates National polls Endorsements Facebook map

2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

How this works »

UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

SWIPE TO
NAVIGATE

According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 92% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Rubio

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Michigan Republican primary, we’ve collected 25 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Mar. 6 Mitchell Research & Communications663 LV
0.92
Trump +22
42%
19%
20%
9%
Mar. 5-6 Trafalgar Group1,610 LV
0.92
Trump +18
41%
23%
23%
8%
Mar. 3-6 Monmouth University402 LV
0.87
Trump +13
36%
23%
21%
13%
Mar. 2-4 YouGov637 LV
0.51
Trump +15
39%
24%
15%
16%
Mar. 4-5 American Research Group400 LV
0.48
Kasich +2
31%
15%
33%
11%
Mar. 1-3 Marist College482 LV
0.46
Trump +19
41%
22%
13%
17%
Feb. 27-29 EPIC-MRA400 LV
0.12
Trump +10
29%
19%
8%
18%
Mar. 2 Mitchell Research & Communications643 LV
0.07
Trump +23
42%
19%
14%
15%
Mar. 2-3 Trafalgar Group1,643 LV
0.04
Trump +22
42%
20%
18%
14%
Jan. 25-Mar. 3 Michigan State University290 LV
0.04
Trump +16
36%
20%
9%
18%
Mar. 6
663 LV
Trump +22
Trump 42%
Kasich 20%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 9%
Mar. 5-6
1,610 LV
Trump +18
Trump 41%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 23%
Rubio 8%
Mar. 3-6
402 LV
Trump +13
Trump 36%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 13%
Mar. 2-4
637 LV
Trump +15
Trump 39%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 15%
Mar. 4-5
400 LV
Kasich +2
Kasich 33%
Trump 31%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 11%
Mar. 1-3
482 LV
Trump +19
Trump 41%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 13%
Feb. 27-29
400 LV
Trump +10
Trump 29%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 8%
Mar. 2
643 LV
Trump +23
Trump 42%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 14%
Mar. 2-3
1,643 LV
Trump +22
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Kasich 18%
Rubio 14%
Jan. 25-Mar. 3
290 LV
Trump +16
Trump 36%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 9%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

CommentsAdd Comment