There’s no forecast for Missouri yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.
Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the Missouri Republican primary, we’ve collected three polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Trump | Cruz | Rubio | Kasich | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Mar. 3-10 | Fort Hays State University | 208 | LV | 0.18 | Trump +7 | 36% | 29% | 9% | 8% |
| • | Dec. 18-19 | Remington | 1,528 | LV | 0.00 | Trump +10 | 33% | 23% | 12% | 1% |
| • | Aug. 7-9 | Public Policy Polling | 440 | LV | 0.00 | Trump +12* | 23% | 9% | 6% | 4% |
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