Chance of Trump winning N.Y.

Polls-plus >99%

Polls-only >99%

Chance of Clinton winning N.Y.

Polls-plus 97%

Polls-only 94%

Chance of Trump winning Pa.

Polls-plus 58%

Polls-only 81%

Chance of Clinton winning Pa.

Polls-plus 95%

Polls-only 89%

Chance of Cruz winning Calif.

Polls-plus 61%

Polls-only 31%

Chance of Clinton winning Calif.

Polls-plus 91%

Polls-only 78%

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