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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 12:19 PM EDT | May 28, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 71% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Nevada Democratic caucuses, we’ve collected nine polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Feb. 14-15 Gravis Marketing516 LV
0.44
Clinton +6
53%
47%
Feb. 10-15 Opinion Research Corporation282 LV
0.33
Clinton +1
48%
47%
Feb. 8-10 TargetPoint1,236 LV
0.05
Tie
45%
45%
Dec. 23-27 Gravis Marketing326 LV
0.00
Clinton +23
50%
27%
Nov. 10-16 Morning Consult237 RV
0.00
Clinton +29
59%
30%
Oct. 3-10 Opinion Research Corporation253 LV
0.00
Clinton +16
50%
34%
Jul. 12-13 Gravis Marketing416 LV
0.00
Clinton +37
55%
18%
Mar. 27 Gravis Marketing319 LV
0.00
Clinton +46*
61%
7%
Feb. 21-22 Gravis Marketing324 LV
0.00
Clinton +38*
58%
4%
Feb. 14-15
516 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 53%
Sanders 47%
Feb. 10-15
282 LV
Clinton +1
Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%
Feb. 8-10
1,236 LV
Tie
Clinton 45%
Sanders 45%
Dec. 23-27
326 LV
Clinton +23
Clinton 50%
Sanders 27%
Nov. 10-16
237 RV
Clinton +29
Clinton 59%
Sanders 30%
Oct. 3-10
253 LV
Clinton +16
Clinton 50%
Sanders 34%
Jul. 12-13
416 LV
Clinton +37
Clinton 55%
Sanders 18%
Mar. 27
319 LV
Clinton +46*
Clinton 61%
Sanders 7%
Feb. 21-22
324 LV
Clinton +38*
Clinton 58%
Sanders 4%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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