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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 9:52 AM EDT | May 26, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 64% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.

John Kasich and Ben Carson had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Nevada Republican caucuses, we’ve collected eight polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Carson
Feb. 14-15 Gravis Marketing687 LV
0.33
Trump +16
39%
23%
19%
9%
5%
Feb. 10-15 Opinion Research Corporation245 LV
0.21
Trump +26
45%
17%
19%
5%
7%
Dec. 23-27 Gravis Marketing406 LV
0.00
Trump +13
33%
20%
11%
1%
6%
Nov. 10-16 Morning Consult249 RV
0.00
Trump +20
38%
7%
12%
1%
18%
Oct. 3-10 Opinion Research Corporation285 LV
0.00
Trump +16
38%
4%
7%
1%
22%
Jul. 12-13 Gravis Marketing623 LV
0.00
Trump +13*
28%
4%
5%
8%
Mar. 27 Gravis Marketing443 LV
0.00
Tie*
18%
7%
6%
Feb. 21-22 Gravis Marketing438 LV
0.00
Walker +8*
6%
4%
Feb. 14-15
687 LV
Trump +16
Trump 39%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
Feb. 10-15
245 LV
Trump +26
Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Kasich 5%
Dec. 23-27
406 LV
Trump +13
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 11%
Carson 6%
Kasich 1%
Nov. 10-16
249 RV
Trump +20
Trump 38%
Carson 18%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 7%
Kasich 1%
Oct. 3-10
285 LV
Trump +16
Trump 38%
Carson 22%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 4%
Kasich 1%
Jul. 12-13
623 LV
Trump +13*
Trump 28%
Carson 8%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 4%
Mar. 27
443 LV
Tie*
Cruz 18%
Rubio 7%
Carson 6%
Feb. 21-22
438 LV
Walker +8*
Cruz 6%
Rubio 4%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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