According to our final polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders had a greater than 99% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.
Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the New Hampshire Democratic primary, we’ve collected 87 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Sanders | Clinton | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Feb. 4-7 | Emerson College | 783 | LV | 0.90 | Sanders +12 | 54% | 42% |
| • | Feb. 4-6 | Monmouth University | 502 | LV | 0.81 | Sanders +10 | 52% | 42% |
| • | Feb. 7-8 | American Research Group | 409 | LV | 0.79 | Sanders +9 | 53% | 44% |
| • | Feb. 4-8 | University of New Hampshire | 363 | LV | 0.73 | Sanders +26 | 61% | 35% |
| • | Feb. 5-7 | UMass Lowell | 407 | LV | 0.59 | Sanders +16 | 56% | 40% |
| • | Feb. 2-3 | Marist College | 567 | LV | 0.43 | Sanders +20 | 58% | 38% |
| • | Feb. 2-4 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.42 | Sanders +9 | 50% | 41% |
| • | Feb. 2-4 | MassINC Polling Group | 393 | LV | 0.35 | Sanders +15 | 54% | 39% |
| • | Feb. 2-6 | Franklin Pierce University | 407 | LV | 0.32 | Sanders +7 | 51% | 44% |
| • | Feb. 2-4 | Gravis Marketing | 702 | LV | 0.32 | Sanders +16 | 58% | 42% |
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