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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 6:54 PM EDT | Jun 29, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders had a greater than 99% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Sanders
Clinton

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New Hampshire Democratic primary, we’ve collected 87 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Sanders
Clinton
Feb. 4-7 Emerson College783 LV
0.90
Sanders +12
54%
42%
Feb. 4-6 Monmouth University502 LV
0.81
Sanders +10
52%
42%
Feb. 7-8 American Research Group409 LV
0.79
Sanders +9
53%
44%
Feb. 4-8 University of New Hampshire363 LV
0.73
Sanders +26
61%
35%
Feb. 5-7 UMass Lowell407 LV
0.59
Sanders +16
56%
40%
Feb. 2-3 Marist College567 LV
0.43
Sanders +20
58%
38%
Feb. 2-4 Suffolk University500 LV
0.42
Sanders +9
50%
41%
Feb. 2-4 MassINC Polling Group393 LV
0.35
Sanders +15
54%
39%
Feb. 2-6 Franklin Pierce University407 LV
0.32
Sanders +7
51%
44%
Feb. 2-4 Gravis Marketing702 LV
0.32
Sanders +16
58%
42%
Feb. 4-7
783 LV
Sanders +12
Sanders 54%
Clinton 42%
Feb. 4-6
502 LV
Sanders +10
Sanders 52%
Clinton 42%
Feb. 7-8
409 LV
Sanders +9
Sanders 53%
Clinton 44%
Feb. 4-8
363 LV
Sanders +26
Sanders 61%
Clinton 35%
Feb. 5-7
407 LV
Sanders +16
Sanders 56%
Clinton 40%
Feb. 2-3
567 LV
Sanders +20
Sanders 58%
Clinton 38%
Feb. 2-4
500 LV
Sanders +9
Sanders 50%
Clinton 41%
Feb. 2-4
393 LV
Sanders +15
Sanders 54%
Clinton 39%
Feb. 2-6
407 LV
Sanders +7
Sanders 51%
Clinton 44%
Feb. 2-4
702 LV
Sanders +16
Sanders 58%
Clinton 42%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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