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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 12:19 PM EDT | May 28, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 69% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Bush
Cruz
Christie
Fiorina
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New Hampshire Republican primary, we’ve collected 103 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Cruz
Bush
Christie
Fiorina
Carson
Feb. 7 Gravis Marketing705 LV
0.92
Trump +11
28%
15%
17%
11%
14%
6%
5%
3%
Feb. 4-7 Emerson College686 LV
0.85
Trump +15
31%
12%
13%
11%
16%
6%
7%
3%
Feb. 4-6 Monmouth University508 LV
0.81
Trump +16
30%
13%
14%
12%
13%
6%
5%
4%
Feb. 7-8 American Research Group418 LV
0.80
Trump +16
33%
14%
17%
10%
9%
8%
3%
1%
Feb. 4-8 University of New Hampshire362 LV
0.73
Trump +14
31%
17%
10%
14%
7%
4%
5%
3%
Feb. 5-7 UMass Lowell464 LV
0.63
Trump +21
34%
13%
10%
13%
10%
5%
4%
3%
Feb. 3-4 Suffolk University500 LV
0.48
Trump +10
29%
19%
13%
7%
10%
5%
4%
4%
Feb. 2-3 Marist College653 LV
0.46
Trump +13
30%
17%
10%
15%
9%
4%
2%
4%
Feb. 2-4 MassINC Polling Group410 LV
0.36
Trump +17
29%
12%
9%
12%
9%
6%
8%
4%
Feb. 2-6 Franklin Pierce University433 LV
0.32
Trump +15
31%
15%
11%
16%
10%
5%
4%
3%
Feb. 7
705 LV
Trump +11
Trump 28%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 15%
Bush 14%
Cruz 11%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Carson 3%
Feb. 4-7
686 LV
Trump +15
Trump 31%
Bush 16%
Kasich 13%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 11%
Fiorina 7%
Christie 6%
Carson 3%
Feb. 4-6
508 LV
Trump +16
Trump 30%
Kasich 14%
Bush 13%
Rubio 13%
Cruz 12%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Carson 4%
Feb. 7-8
418 LV
Trump +16
Trump 33%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 10%
Bush 9%
Christie 8%
Fiorina 3%
Carson 1%
Feb. 4-8
362 LV
Trump +14
Trump 31%
Rubio 17%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 5%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%
Feb. 5-7
464 LV
Trump +21
Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Bush 10%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%
Feb. 3-4
500 LV
Trump +10
Trump 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 13%
Bush 10%
Cruz 7%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 4%
Feb. 2-3
653 LV
Trump +13
Trump 30%
Rubio 17%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 10%
Bush 9%
Carson 4%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 2%
Feb. 2-4
410 LV
Trump +17
Trump 29%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 12%
Bush 9%
Kasich 9%
Fiorina 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 4%
Feb. 2-6
433 LV
Trump +15
Trump 31%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 11%
Bush 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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