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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the North Carolina primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the North Carolina Democratic primary, we’ve collected 25 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Mar. 11-13 Public Policy Polling747 LV
1.07
Clinton +19
56%
37%
Mar. 9-10 SurveyUSA669 LV
0.93
Clinton +24
58%
34%
Mar. 4-7 SurveyUSA687 LV
0.21
Clinton +23
57%
34%
Mar. 3-7 National Research, Inc.500 LV
0.17
Clinton +29
57%
28%
Feb. 15-19 Elon University728 LV
0.00
Clinton +10
47%
37%
Feb. 14-16 SurveyUSA449 LV
0.00
Clinton +15
51%
36%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling575 LV
0.00
Clinton +17
52%
35%
Jan. 30-Feb. 4 High Point University478 LV
0.00
Clinton +26
55%
29%
Jan. 18-19 Public Policy Polling461 LV
0.00
Clinton +33
59%
26%
Jan. 13-16 National Research, Inc.500 LV
0.00
Clinton +25
53%
28%
Mar. 11-13
747 LV
Clinton +19
Clinton 56%
Sanders 37%
Mar. 9-10
669 LV
Clinton +24
Clinton 58%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 4-7
687 LV
Clinton +23
Clinton 57%
Sanders 34%
Mar. 3-7
500 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 57%
Sanders 28%
Feb. 15-19
728 LV
Clinton +10
Clinton 47%
Sanders 37%
Feb. 14-16
449 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 51%
Sanders 36%
Feb. 14-16
575 LV
Clinton +17
Clinton 52%
Sanders 35%
Jan. 30-Feb. 4
478 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 55%
Sanders 29%
Jan. 18-19
461 LV
Clinton +33
Clinton 59%
Sanders 26%
Jan. 13-16
500 LV
Clinton +25
Clinton 53%
Sanders 28%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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