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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning the Ohio primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Ohio Democratic primary, we’ve collected 20 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Mar. 11-12 Public Policy Polling502 LV
0.77
Clinton +5
46%
41%
Mar. 11-13 Monmouth University302 LV
0.76
Clinton +14
54%
40%
Mar. 8-13 Quinnipiac University543 LV
0.73
Clinton +5
51%
46%
Mar. 12-13 American Research Group400 LV
0.63
Clinton +7
52%
45%
Mar. 9-11 YouGov755 LV
0.57
Clinton +9
52%
43%
Mar. 4-10 Marist College453 LV
0.28
Clinton +20
58%
38%
Mar. 2-6 Opinion Research Corporation294 LV
0.11
Clinton +30
63%
33%
Mar. 2-7 Quinnipiac University521 LV
0.07
Clinton +9
52%
43%
Mar. 4-6 Public Policy Polling508 LV
0.05
Clinton +21
56%
35%
Feb. 16-20 Quinnipiac University518 LV
0.00
Clinton +15
55%
40%
Mar. 11-12
502 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 46%
Sanders 41%
Mar. 11-13
302 LV
Clinton +14
Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%
Mar. 8-13
543 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 51%
Sanders 46%
Mar. 12-13
400 LV
Clinton +7
Clinton 52%
Sanders 45%
Mar. 9-11
755 LV
Clinton +9
Clinton 52%
Sanders 43%
Mar. 4-10
453 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 58%
Sanders 38%
Mar. 2-6
294 LV
Clinton +30
Clinton 63%
Sanders 33%
Mar. 2-7
521 LV
Clinton +9
Clinton 52%
Sanders 43%
Mar. 4-6
508 LV
Clinton +21
Clinton 56%
Sanders 35%
Feb. 16-20
518 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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