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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, John Kasich had an 86% chance of winning the Ohio primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Kasich
Trump
Cruz
Rubio

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Ohio Republican primary, we’ve collected 19 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Kasich
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Mar. 11-13 Monmouth University503 LV
1.10
Kasich +5
40%
35%
15%
5%
Mar. 8-13 Quinnipiac University721 LV
0.86
Tie
38%
38%
16%
3%
Mar. 12-13 American Research Group400 LV
0.63
Kasich +6
44%
38%
12%
2%
Mar. 9-11 YouGov798 LV
0.58
Tie
33%
33%
27%
5%
Mar. 4-10 Marist College564 LV
0.32
Kasich +6
39%
33%
19%
6%
Mar. 5-8 Fox News806 LV
0.29
Kasich +5
34%
29%
19%
7%
Mar. 4-6 Public Policy Polling638 LV
0.18
Trump +3
35%
38%
15%
5%
Mar. 2-6 Opinion Research Corporation359 LV
0.13
Trump +6
35%
41%
15%
7%
Mar. 2-7 Quinnipiac University685 LV
0.07
Trump +6
32%
38%
16%
9%
Feb. 16-20 Quinnipiac University759 LV
0.00
Trump +5
26%
31%
21%
13%
Mar. 11-13
503 LV
Kasich +5
Kasich 40%
Trump 35%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 5%
Mar. 8-13
721 LV
Tie
Kasich 38%
Trump 38%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 3%
Mar. 12-13
400 LV
Kasich +6
Kasich 44%
Trump 38%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 2%
Mar. 9-11
798 LV
Tie
Trump 33%
Kasich 33%
Cruz 27%
Rubio 5%
Mar. 4-10
564 LV
Kasich +6
Kasich 39%
Trump 33%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 6%
Mar. 5-8
806 LV
Kasich +5
Kasich 34%
Trump 29%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 7%
Mar. 4-6
638 LV
Trump +3
Trump 38%
Kasich 35%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 5%
Mar. 2-6
359 LV
Trump +6
Trump 41%
Kasich 35%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 7%
Mar. 2-7
685 LV
Trump +6
Trump 38%
Kasich 32%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 9%
Feb. 16-20
759 LV
Trump +5
Trump 31%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 13%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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