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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 9:52 AM EDT | May 26, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 51% chance of winning the Oklahoma primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Oklahoma Democratic primary, we’ve collected eight polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Sanders
Clinton
Feb. 25-28 Monmouth University300 LV
0.71
Sanders +5
48%
43%
Feb. 23-25 SoonerPoll.com510 LV
0.54
Clinton +9
31%
40%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling542 LV
0.06
Clinton +2
44%
46%
Feb. 6-9 SoonerPoll.com382 LV
0.00
Clinton +16
28%
44%
Jan. 25-28 Cole Hargrave300 LV
0.00
Clinton +11
25%
36%
Jan. 17-19 SoonerPoll.com485 RV
0.00
Clinton +25
16%
41%
Nov. 12-15 SoonerPoll.com369 LV
0.00
Clinton +35
12%
47%
Oct. 19-22 Cole Hargrave350 RV
0.00
Clinton +9
21%
30%
Feb. 25-28
300 LV
Sanders +5
Sanders 48%
Clinton 43%
Feb. 23-25
510 LV
Clinton +9
Clinton 40%
Sanders 31%
Feb. 14-16
542 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 46%
Sanders 44%
Feb. 6-9
382 LV
Clinton +16
Clinton 44%
Sanders 28%
Jan. 25-28
300 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 36%
Sanders 25%
Jan. 17-19
485 RV
Clinton +25
Clinton 41%
Sanders 16%
Nov. 12-15
369 LV
Clinton +35
Clinton 47%
Sanders 12%
Oct. 19-22
350 RV
Clinton +9
Clinton 30%
Sanders 21%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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