Primary Forecasts

Updated

Chance of winning Iowa
Polls-only forecastPolls-plus forecast
Trump56%48%
Cruz33%39%
Rubio9%11%
Chance of winning Iowa
Polls-only forecastPolls-plus forecast
Clinton73%79%
Sanders27%21%
O'Malley<1%<1%
Chance of winning New Hampshire
Polls-only forecastPolls-plus forecast
Trump68%56%
Cruz9%15%
Rubio6%11%
Chance of winning New Hampshire
Polls-only forecastPolls-plus forecast
Sanders95%82%
Clinton5%18%
O'Malley<1%<1%
See forecasts for more primaries