Primary Forecasts
Updated
Chance of winning Michigan
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Clinton | >99% | >99% |
 | Sanders | <1% | <1% |
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Trump | 97%▲ | 92%▲ |
 | Kasich | 1% | 5% |
 | Cruz | 2% | 3% |
Chance of winning Florida
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 99% | >99% |
| Sanders | 1% | <1% |
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 85% | 60%▼ |
 | Rubio | 14% | 40%▲ |
| Cruz | <1% | <1% |
Chance of winning Illinois
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 97% | 99% |
| Sanders | 3% | 1% |
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 82% | 66% |
| Rubio | 11% | 28% |
| Cruz | 5% | 4% |