Primary Forecasts
Updated
Chance of winning Florida
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Clinton | >99% | >99% |
 | Sanders | <1% | <1% |
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Trump | 97%▲ | 85%▲ |
 | Rubio | 2%▼ | 15%▼ |
 | Cruz | <1% | <1% |
Chance of winning Illinois
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | >99% | >99% |
| Sanders | <1% | <1% |
| Polls-only forecast | Polls-plus forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 75%▼ | 57%▼ |
| Rubio | 12% | 29% |
| Cruz | 10%▲ | 9%▲ |
