Primary Forecasts
Updated
Jan 31
Chance of winning Iowa
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Trump
56%
48%
▲
Cruz
33%
39%
▼
Rubio
9%
11%
Chance of winning Iowa
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Clinton
73%
79%
Sanders
27%
21%
O'Malley
<1%
<1%
Chance of winning New Hampshire
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Trump
68%
▲
56%
▲
Cruz
9%
15%
Rubio
6%
11%
Chance of winning New Hampshire
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Sanders
95%
▲
82%
▲
Clinton
5%
▼
18%
▼
O'Malley
<1%
<1%
See forecasts for more primaries
