Primary Forecasts
Updated
Feb 16
Chance of winning South Carolina
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Trump
85%
▲
74%
▲
Rubio
5%
14%
▼
Cruz
9%
▼
10%
▼
Polls-only forecast
Polls-plus forecast
Clinton
>99%
▲
>99%
▲
Sanders
<1%
▼
<1%
▼
See forecasts for more primaries