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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 12:12 PM EDT | May 24, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the South Carolina Democratic primary, we’ve collected 34 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Feb. 20-25 Clemson University650 LV
0.62
Clinton +50
64%
14%
Feb. 22-24 Emerson College266 LV
0.43
Clinton +23
60%
37%
Feb. 15-17 Fox News642 LV
0.18
Clinton +28
56%
28%
Feb. 15-17 Marist College425 LV
0.16
Clinton +28
60%
32%
Feb. 13-17 Selzer & Co.403 LV
0.16
Clinton +22
53%
31%
Feb. 17-18 American Research Group400 LV
0.14
Clinton +29
61%
32%
Feb. 14-16 Monmouth University403 LV
0.13
Clinton +29
59%
30%
Feb. 14-15 Public Policy Polling525 LV
0.11
Clinton +21
55%
34%
Feb. 10-15 Opinion Research Corporation280 LV
0.06
Clinton +18
56%
38%
Feb. 11-13 Gravis Marketing507 LV
0.05
Clinton +18
59%
41%
Feb. 20-25
650 LV
Clinton +50
Clinton 64%
Sanders 14%
Feb. 22-24
266 LV
Clinton +23
Clinton 60%
Sanders 37%
Feb. 15-17
642 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 56%
Sanders 28%
Feb. 15-17
425 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 60%
Sanders 32%
Feb. 13-17
403 LV
Clinton +22
Clinton 53%
Sanders 31%
Feb. 17-18
400 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 61%
Sanders 32%
Feb. 14-16
403 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 59%
Sanders 30%
Feb. 14-15
525 LV
Clinton +21
Clinton 55%
Sanders 34%
Feb. 10-15
280 LV
Clinton +18
Clinton 56%
Sanders 38%
Feb. 11-13
507 LV
Clinton +18
Clinton 59%
Sanders 41%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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