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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for South Carolina »

n S.C. Republican primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 76% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

John Kasich and Ben Carson had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Bush
Kasich
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the South Carolina Republican primary, we’ve collected 56 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Kasich
Carson
•Feb. 18 SC House Republican Caucus3,500 LV
1.12
Trump +15
34%
19%
18%
12%
8%
5%
•Feb. 17-18 National Research, Inc.500 LV
0.93
Trump +13
32%
19%
18%
8%
7%
6%
•Feb. 15-17 Marist College722 LV
0.93
Trump +5
28%
23%
15%
13%
9%
9%
•Feb. 15-17 Fox News759 LV
0.81
Trump +13
32%
19%
15%
9%
6%
9%
•Feb. 18-19 Opinion Savvy780 LV
0.74
Trump +3
27%
19%
24%
11%
8%
8%
•Feb. 13-16 Selzer & Co.502 LV
0.68
Trump +19
36%
17%
15%
13%
7%
9%
•Feb. 16-18 Emerson College418 LV
0.64
Trump +17
36%
18%
19%
10%
10%
6%
•Feb. 16-17 Harper Polling599 LV
0.62
Trump +12
29%
17%
15%
14%
13%
8%
•Feb. 17-18 American Research Group401 LV
0.61
Trump +12
34%
13%
22%
9%
14%
4%
•Feb. 14-18 Clemson University650 LV
0.60
Trump +9
28%
19%
15%
10%
9%
6%
•Feb. 18
SC House Republican Caucus
3,500 LV
Trump +15
Trump 34%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 18%
Bush 12%
Kasich 8%
Carson 5%
•Feb. 17-18
National Research, Inc.
500 LV
Trump +13
Trump 32%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 18%
Bush 8%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
•Feb. 15-17
Marist College
722 LV
Trump +5
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Carson 9%
Kasich 9%
•Feb. 15-17
Fox News
759 LV
Trump +13
Trump 32%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 15%
Carson 9%
Bush 9%
Kasich 6%
•Feb. 18-19
Opinion Savvy
780 LV
Trump +3
Trump 27%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 19%
Bush 11%
Carson 8%
Kasich 8%
•Feb. 13-16
Selzer & Co.
502 LV
Trump +19
Trump 36%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Carson 9%
Kasich 7%
•Feb. 16-18
Emerson College
418 LV
Trump +17
Trump 36%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 18%
Bush 10%
Kasich 10%
Carson 6%
•Feb. 16-17
Harper Polling
599 LV
Trump +12
Trump 29%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Bush 14%
Kasich 13%
Carson 8%
•Feb. 17-18
American Research Group
401 LV
Trump +12
Trump 34%
Rubio 22%
Kasich 14%
Cruz 13%
Bush 9%
Carson 4%
•Feb. 14-18
Clemson University
650 LV
Trump +9
Trump 28%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 15%
Bush 10%
Kasich 9%
Carson 6%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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