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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 12:12 PM EDT | May 24, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz had an 87% chance of winning the Texas primary.

Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Texas Republican primary, we’ve collected 21 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Carson
Feb. 26-28 Emerson College449 LV
0.75
Cruz +3
35%
32%
16%
9%
4%
Feb. 28 Opinion Savvy712 LV
0.65
Cruz +11
36%
25%
19%
9%
8%
Feb. 26-28 American Research Group400 LV
0.54
Cruz +1
33%
32%
17%
7%
6%
Feb. 22-26 YouGov796 LV
0.43
Cruz +11
42%
31%
19%
4%
4%
Feb. 21-22 SurveyUSA645 LV
0.39
Tie
32%
32%
17%
6%
5%
Feb. 22-24 Monmouth University456 LV
0.37
Cruz +15
38%
23%
21%
5%
6%
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey613 RV
0.34
Cruz +2
33%
31%
19%
5%
9%
Feb. 24 Crosswind Media & Public Relations620 LV
0.31
Cruz +12
38%
26%
13%
7%
6%
Feb. 18-23 Marist College537 LV
0.20
Cruz +13
39%
26%
16%
6%
8%
Feb. 22 Dixie Strategies725 LV
0.18
Cruz +8
33%
25%
15%
8%
6%
Feb. 26-28
449 LV
Cruz +3
Cruz 35%
Trump 32%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 9%
Carson 4%
Feb. 28
712 LV
Cruz +11
Cruz 36%
Trump 25%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 8%
Feb. 26-28
400 LV
Cruz +1
Cruz 33%
Trump 32%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
Feb. 22-26
796 LV
Cruz +11
Cruz 42%
Trump 31%
Rubio 19%
Carson 4%
Kasich 4%
Feb. 21-22
645 LV
Tie
Trump 32%
Cruz 32%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 6%
Carson 5%
Feb. 22-24
456 LV
Cruz +15
Cruz 38%
Trump 23%
Rubio 21%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%
Feb. 22-29
613 RV
Cruz +2
Cruz 33%
Trump 31%
Rubio 19%
Carson 9%
Kasich 5%
Feb. 24
620 LV
Cruz +12
Cruz 38%
Trump 26%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
Feb. 18-23
537 LV
Cruz +13
Cruz 39%
Trump 26%
Rubio 16%
Carson 8%
Kasich 6%
Feb. 22
725 LV
Cruz +8
Cruz 33%
Trump 25%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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