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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 4:52 PM EDT | Jun 24, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz had a 98% chance of winning the Utah caucuses.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Cruz
Kasich
Trump

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Utah Republican caucuses, we’ve collected nine polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Cruz
Kasich
Trump
Mar. 17-19 Y2 Analytics500 LV
0.53
Cruz +24
53%
29%
11%
Mar. 8-15 Dan Jones & Associates215 LV
0.08
Cruz +21
42%
13%
21%
Feb. 10-15 Dan Jones & Associates305 RV
0.00
Rubio +2*
22%
4%
18%
Jan. 6-13 SurveyUSA414 RV
0.00
Cruz +1
18%
1%
17%
Dec. 8-14 Dan Jones & Associates
0.00
Cruz +2*
20%
12%
Nov. 5-15 Dan Jones & Associates
0.00
Carson +16*
14%
9%
Sep. 8-17 Dan Jones & Associates287 A
0.00
Carson +8*
7%
2%
15%
Jul. 14-21 Dan Jones & Associates259 A
0.00
Bush +11*
6%
1%
8%
Mar. 30-Apr. 7 Dan Jones & Associates294 RV
0.00
Bush +9*
13%
Mar. 17-19
500 LV
Cruz +24
Cruz 53%
Kasich 29%
Trump 11%
Mar. 8-15
215 LV
Cruz +21
Cruz 42%
Trump 21%
Kasich 13%
Feb. 10-15
305 RV
Rubio +2*
Cruz 22%
Trump 18%
Kasich 4%
Jan. 6-13
414 RV
Cruz +1
Cruz 18%
Trump 17%
Kasich 1%
Dec. 8-14
Cruz +2*
Cruz 20%
Trump 12%
Nov. 5-15
Carson +16*
Cruz 14%
Trump 9%
Sep. 8-17
287 A
Carson +8*
Trump 15%
Cruz 7%
Kasich 2%
Jul. 14-21
259 A
Bush +11*
Trump 8%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 1%
Mar. 30-Apr. 7
294 RV
Bush +9*
Cruz 13%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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