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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Virginia »

s Virginia Democratic primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Virginia primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Virginia Democratic primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey908 RV
0.47
Clinton +21
57%
36%
•Feb. 22-26 YouGov481 LV
0.43
Clinton +20
59%
39%
•Feb. 22-24 Monmouth University302 LV
0.35
Clinton +27
60%
33%
•Feb. 16-24 Roanoke College415 LV
0.13
Clinton +17
50%
33%
•Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling500 LV
0.07
Clinton +22
56%
34%
•Feb. 3-14 Christopher Newport University286 LV
0.00
Clinton +12
52%
40%
•Nov. 4-9 PSRAI276 LV
0.00
Clinton +36
63%
27%
•Sep. 29-Oct. 8 Christopher Newport University407 RV
0.00
Clinton +17
40%
23%
•Jul. 13-15 Public Policy Polling409 LV
0.00
Clinton +50
64%
14%
•Apr. 13-24 Christopher Newport University259 RV
0.00
Clinton +74*
80%
2%
•Jan. 30-Feb. 10 Christopher Newport University317 RV
0.00
Clinton +55*
65%
2%
•Feb. 22-29
SurveyMonkey
908 RV
Clinton +21
Clinton 57%
Sanders 36%
•Feb. 22-26
YouGov
481 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 59%
Sanders 39%
•Feb. 22-24
Monmouth University
302 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 60%
Sanders 33%
•Feb. 16-24
Roanoke College
415 LV
Clinton +17
Clinton 50%
Sanders 33%
•Feb. 14-16
Public Policy Polling
500 LV
Clinton +22
Clinton 56%
Sanders 34%
•Feb. 3-14
Christopher Newport University
286 LV
Clinton +12
Clinton 52%
Sanders 40%
•Nov. 4-9
PSRAI
276 LV
Clinton +36
Clinton 63%
Sanders 27%
•Sep. 29-Oct. 8
Christopher Newport University
407 RV
Clinton +17
Clinton 40%
Sanders 23%
•Jul. 13-15
Public Policy Polling
409 LV
Clinton +50
Clinton 64%
Sanders 14%
•Apr. 13-24
Christopher Newport University
259 RV
Clinton +74*
Clinton 80%
Sanders 2%
•Jan. 30-Feb. 10
Christopher Newport University
317 RV
Clinton +55*
Clinton 65%
Sanders 2%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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