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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 4:52 PM EDT | Jun 24, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 69% chance of winning the Virginia primary.

Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Kasich
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Virginia Republican primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey848 RV
0.46
Trump +10
36%
26%
13%
11%
7%
Feb. 22-24 Monmouth University421 LV
0.44
Trump +14
41%
27%
14%
7%
7%
Feb. 22-26 YouGov481 LV
0.43
Trump +13
40%
27%
22%
4%
6%
Feb. 16-24 Roanoke College466 LV
0.14
Trump +23
38%
13%
15%
8%
8%
Feb. 3-14 Christopher Newport University368 LV
0.00
Trump +6
28%
22%
19%
7%
7%
Nov. 4-9 PSRAI333 LV
0.00
Carson +5
24%
11%
10%
29%
1%
Sep. 29-Oct. 8 Christopher Newport University412 RV
0.00
Trump +6
23%
14%
5%
17%
2%
Aug. 2-3 Opinion Savvy546 LV
0.00
Trump +13*
28%
4%
6%
8%
3%
Jul. 13-15 Public Policy Polling502 LV
0.00
Bush +4*
14%
7%
5%
10%
1%
Apr. 13-24 Christopher Newport University301 RV
0.00
Bush +1*
5%
16%
7%
7%
0%
Jan. 30-Feb. 10 Christopher Newport University325 RV
0.00
Bush +5*
6%
3%
9%
3%
Feb. 22-29
848 RV
Trump +10
Trump 36%
Rubio 26%
Cruz 13%
Carson 11%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 22-24
421 LV
Trump +14
Trump 41%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 14%
Carson 7%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 22-26
481 LV
Trump +13
Trump 40%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 22%
Kasich 6%
Carson 4%
Feb. 16-24
466 LV
Trump +23
Trump 38%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Kasich 8%
Feb. 3-14
368 LV
Trump +6
Trump 28%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 19%
Carson 7%
Kasich 7%
Nov. 4-9
333 LV
Carson +5
Carson 29%
Trump 24%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 1%
Sep. 29-Oct. 8
412 RV
Trump +6
Trump 23%
Carson 17%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 2%
Aug. 2-3
546 LV
Trump +13*
Trump 28%
Carson 8%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 3%
Jul. 13-15
502 LV
Bush +4*
Trump 14%
Carson 10%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 1%
Apr. 13-24
301 RV
Bush +1*
Rubio 16%
Carson 7%
Cruz 7%
Trump 5%
Kasich 0%
Jan. 30-Feb. 10
325 RV
Bush +5*
Carson 9%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 3%
Kasich 3%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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