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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders had a 72% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Sanders
Clinton

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Wisconsin Democratic primary, we’ve collected 17 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Sanders
Clinton
Mar. 30-Apr. 3 Emerson College542 LV
0.58
Sanders +8
51%
43%
Apr. 1-3 American Research Group400 LV
0.57
Clinton +1
48%
49%
Mar. 29-Apr. 1 YouGov653 LV
0.49
Sanders +2
49%
47%
Mar. 28-30 Fox News860 LV
0.46
Sanders +5
48%
43%
Mar. 28-29 Public Policy Polling720 LV
0.36
Sanders +6
49%
43%
Mar. 28-29 Loras College416 LV
0.24
Clinton +6
41%
47%
Mar. 24-28 Marquette Law School405 LV
0.19
Sanders +4
49%
45%
Mar. 20-22 Emerson College354 LV
0.01
Clinton +6
44%
50%
Feb. 18-21 Marquette Law School343 LV
0.00
Sanders +1
44%
43%
Jan. 21-24 Marquette Law School312 LV
0.00
Clinton +2
43%
45%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3
542 LV
Sanders +8
Sanders 51%
Clinton 43%
Apr. 1-3
400 LV
Clinton +1
Clinton 49%
Sanders 48%
Mar. 29-Apr. 1
653 LV
Sanders +2
Sanders 49%
Clinton 47%
Mar. 28-30
860 LV
Sanders +5
Sanders 48%
Clinton 43%
Mar. 28-29
720 LV
Sanders +6
Sanders 49%
Clinton 43%
Mar. 28-29
416 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 47%
Sanders 41%
Mar. 24-28
405 LV
Sanders +4
Sanders 49%
Clinton 45%
Mar. 20-22
354 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 50%
Sanders 44%
Feb. 18-21
343 LV
Sanders +1
Sanders 44%
Clinton 43%
Jan. 21-24
312 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 45%
Sanders 43%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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