2016 Election Primary forecasts Delegates National polls Endorsements Facebook map

2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

How this works »

UPDATED 7:49 PM EDT | Jun 28, 2016

SWIPE TO
NAVIGATE

According to our final polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz had an 89% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Cruz
Trump
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Wisconsin Republican primary, we’ve collected 19 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Cruz
Trump
Kasich
Mar. 30-Apr. 3 Emerson College549 LV
0.59
Cruz +5
40%
35%
21%
Apr. 1-3 American Research Group400 LV
0.57
Trump +10
32%
42%
23%
Mar. 29-Apr. 1 YouGov675 LV
0.50
Cruz +6
43%
37%
18%
Mar. 28-30 Fox News742 LV
0.43
Cruz +10
42%
32%
19%
Mar. 28-29 Public Policy Polling768 LV
0.37
Cruz +1
38%
37%
17%
Mar. 28-29 Loras College416 LV
0.24
Cruz +7
38%
31%
18%
Mar. 24-28 Marquette Law School471 LV
0.22
Cruz +10
40%
30%
21%
Mar. 22-24 Øptimus7,117 LV
0.09
Trump +2
27%
31%
29%
Mar. 19-20 Basswood Research500 LV
0.02
Cruz +5
36%
31%
21%
Mar. 20-22 Emerson College439 LV
0.01
Cruz +1
36%
35%
19%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3
549 LV
Cruz +5
Cruz 40%
Trump 35%
Kasich 21%
Apr. 1-3
400 LV
Trump +10
Trump 42%
Cruz 32%
Kasich 23%
Mar. 29-Apr. 1
675 LV
Cruz +6
Cruz 43%
Trump 37%
Kasich 18%
Mar. 28-30
742 LV
Cruz +10
Cruz 42%
Trump 32%
Kasich 19%
Mar. 28-29
768 LV
Cruz +1
Cruz 38%
Trump 37%
Kasich 17%
Mar. 28-29
416 LV
Cruz +7
Cruz 38%
Trump 31%
Kasich 18%
Mar. 24-28
471 LV
Cruz +10
Cruz 40%
Trump 30%
Kasich 21%
Mar. 22-24
7,117 LV
Trump +2
Trump 31%
Kasich 29%
Cruz 27%
Mar. 19-20
500 LV
Cruz +5
Cruz 36%
Trump 31%
Kasich 21%
Mar. 20-22
439 LV
Cruz +1
Cruz 36%
Trump 35%
Kasich 19%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

CommentsAdd Comment