Bush
If Facebook likes were votes, Bernie Sanders would be on pace to beat Hillary Clinton nationwide by a nearly 3-to-1 margin and Donald Trump to garner more support than Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined. Anything seems possible this year, but, still, be careful how you interpret these numbers: Facebook likes are not votes.
According to the Pew Research Center, 58 percent of American adults use Facebook. But this share is not a representative sample of the country — Facebook users are disproportionately young (although not as young as users of other social media networks), low-income and female. And the sample may be even more skewed because only some people on Facebook have liked a presidential candidate's page and because those pages haven't existed for the same amount of time. As “The Literary Digest” taught us in 1936, large but biased samples aren’t so effective.
Of course, Facebook isn’t claiming to be predictive — likes can still be a fun gauge of where candidates have support. If you want your voice to be heard in 2016, you should vote. But if you want to be included in the next update of this map, just go like a candidate’s page!
See also: 2016 primary forecasts | Primary endorsements