2015 Women’s World Cup Predictions

By Jay Boice and Allison McCann

FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup forecasting model uses our Women's Soccer Power Index (WSPI) — a system that combines game-based offensive and defensive ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate each country’s chances during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities, which are based on 20,000 simulations, will be updated at the end of each match. Read more: How our model works » | Tournament preview »

ARCHIVED FORECAST FROM Jun 2

The Group Stage

June 6-June 17

The first stage of the World Cup is a round-robin tournament, in which each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, as do the four best third-place teams.

A

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
B

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
C

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
D

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
E

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
F

wspi /100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
conceded
game schedule
DateOpponentWinLoseTie

The Knockout Stage

June 20-July 5

The second stage of the World Cup consists of four rounds of single-elimination games. The table below shows each team’s WSPI score, its chance of reaching each round of the knockout stage and its chance of winning the World Cup.

Chance of Reaching Round
WSPITeam
Group
G
Sixteen
16
Quarter
1/4
SemiFinalWin
95.4
USA
USA
D
96%
96%
80%
80%
65%
65%
42%
42%
28%
28%
95.6
Germany
GER
B
99%
99%
81%
81%
61%
61%
40%
40%
27%
27%
92.7
Japan
JPN
C
99%
99%
79%
79%
41%
41%
23%
23%
10%
10%
92.4
France
FRA
F
97%
97%
67%
67%
33%
33%
16%
16%
8%
8%
90.1
Canada
CAN
A
93%
93%
69%
69%
36%
36%
17%
17%
7%
7%
92.2
Brazil
BRA
E
98%
98%
51%
51%
28%
28%
15%
15%
6%
6%
91.6
Sweden
SWE
D
79%
79%
45%
45%
27%
27%
13%
13%
5%
5%
89.6
England
ENG
F
89%
89%
48%
48%
21%
21%
8%
8%
2%
2%
88.7
Norway
NOR
B
95%
95%
47%
47%
22%
22%
8%
8%
2%
2%
88.7
Australia
AUS
D
58%
58%
26%
26%
13%
13%
5%
5%
2%
2%
86.2
Netherlands
NED
A
69%
69%
33%
33%
10%
10%
3%
3%
<1%
<1%
85.2
China
CHN
A
64%
64%
28%
28%
7%
7%
2%
2%
<1%
<1%
84.7
Spain
ESP
E
77%
77%
20%
20%
6%
6%
2%
2%
<1%
<1%
85.7
Nigeria
NGA
D
38%
38%
13%
13%
5%
5%
2%
2%
<1%
<1%
83.7
Switzerland
SWI
C
87%
87%
34%
34%
7%
7%
2%
2%
<1%
<1%
84.3
South Korea
KOR
E
75%
75%
18%
18%
5%
5%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
82.5
New Zealand
NZL
A
47%
47%
18%
18%
4%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
81.1
Mexico
MEX
F
48%
48%
11%
11%
3%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
79.3
Cameroon
CMR
C
71%
71%
18%
18%
3%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
78.0
Colombia
COL
F
32%
32%
6%
6%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
75.6
Ivory Coast
CIV
B
41%
41%
6%
6%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
68.0
Thailand
THA
B
14%
14%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
72.8
Costa Rica
CRC
E
20%
20%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
63.3
Ecuador
ECU
C
10%
10%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Illustration by Kurt McRobert. Additional contributions by Aaron Bycoffe, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Ritchie King. Download this data.

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