archived predictions from JUN 9, 2014

The Group Stage

The first stage of the World Cup is a round-robin tournament, where each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group advance to the knockout stage of the tournament.

Group A
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group B
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group C
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group D
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group E
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group F
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group G
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag
Group H
SPI
Offense
Defense
WinLoseTie
vs.flag
vs.flag
vs.flag

The Knockout Stage

The second stage of the World Cup consists of four rounds of single-elimination games. The table below shows each team’s SPI score, its chance of reaching each round of the knockout stage and its chance of winning the World Cup.

Chance of Reaching Round
SPITeam
Group
G
Sixteen
16
Quarter
1/4
SemiFinalWin
91.8
Brazil
BRA
A
99%
80%
70%
56%
45%
76.9
Mexico
MEX
A
40%
11%
5%
2%
<1%
75.7
Croatia
CRO
A
37%
10%
4%
1%
<1%
71.3
Cameroon
CMR
A
23%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
89.1
Spain
ESP
B
80%
45%
31%
18%
8%
86.7
Chile
CHI
B
70%
33%
21%
11%
4%
82.5
Netherlands
NED
B
43%
14%
7%
3%
<1%
69.4
Australia
AUS
B
7%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
85.8
Colombia
COL
C
79%
46%
15%
7%
3%
78.9
Ivory Coast
CIV
C
53%
25%
7%
3%
<1%
76.7
Greece
GRE
C
38%
15%
4%
1%
<1%
73.5
Japan
JPN
C
30%
11%
2%
<1%
<1%
83.3
Uruguay
URU
D
65%
37%
13%
6%
2%
83.2
England
ENG
D
62%
35%
12%
5%
2%
79.5
Italy
ITA
D
45%
21%
6%
2%
<1%
74.2
Costa Rica
CRC
D
30%
10%
2%
<1%
<1%
86.1
France
FRA
E
80%
45%
24%
9%
4%
80.6
Ecuador
ECU
E
56%
23%
10%
3%
<1%
78.0
Switzerland
SUI
E
45%
16%
7%
2%
<1%
69.6
Honduras
HON
E
20%
5%
1%
<1%
<1%
90.0
Argentina
ARG
F
93%
67%
47%
28%
13%
80.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina
BIH
F
56%
26%
11%
3%
<1%
75.2
Nigeria
NGA
F
32%
12%
4%
<1%
<1%
70.7
Iran
IRN
F
19%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
88.9
Germany
GER
G
89%
69%
45%
20%
11%
79.8
Portugal
POR
G
45%
24%
9%
3%
<1%
77.4
USA
USA
G
36%
18%
6%
2%
<1%
76.4
Ghana
GHA
G
30%
14%
5%
1%
<1%
82.0
Belgium
BEL
H
77%
36%
15%
6%
2%
79.0
Russia
RUS
H
62%
23%
9%
2%
<1%
73.6
South Korea
KOR
H
42%
12%
4%
<1%
<1%
63.4
Algeria
ALG
H
19%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Design and development by Matthew Conlen, Ritchie King, Allison McCann, Dhrumil Mehta and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Download this data. Report any bugs.